moonlight2020 · Polymarket wallet 0x407d…1bae

+$42,166 lifetime P&L · 68.3% win rate · 265 resolved markets · 0x407dd149f1e92c91d0053e0240e03318a1e01bae

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Wallet snapshot

moonlight2020 has made 4,396 trades on Polymarket across 305 markets, $1.7M in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (38%) and politics (9%). On 265 resolved markets the win rate is 68.3%, lifetime P&L +$42K. It holds 23 open positions right now; the largest is Yes on "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?". Last trade: Oct 17, 2026.

Largest open positions

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes · $15K · 77¢ → 77¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No · $10K · 50¢ → 52¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes · $9,520 · 50¢ → 48¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No · $4,725 · 93¢ → 95¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No · $4,225 · 80¢ → 85¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?No · $3,250 · 80¢ → 89¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes · $2,293 · 66¢ → 75¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes · $1,612 · 34¢ → 54¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes · $1,535 · 15¢ → 15¢
Will STRC hit $100 by October 31?No · $1,460 · 14¢ → 73¢

Latest closed positions

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No · -$244 · Oct 17, 2026
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?Yes · +$490 · Oct 12, 2026
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Yes · $0 · Oct 12, 2026
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?Yes · -$607 · Oct 12, 2026
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?No · +$8 · Oct 11, 2026
Will Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 90 and 119 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?Yes · -$137 · Oct 9, 2026
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.