qcp11 · Polymarket wallet 0x2184…00df

+$2,002 lifetime P&L · 68.8% win rate · 320 resolved markets · 0x21847e62996173449d295bc00c5d5f427fb500df

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Wallet snapshot

qcp11 has made 2,933 trades on Polymarket across 361 markets, $12K in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (49%) and tech (22%). On 320 resolved markets the win rate is 68.8%, lifetime P&L +$2,002. It holds 38 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?". Last trade: Oct 11, 2026.

Largest open positions

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No · $135 · 30¢ → 86¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No · $69 · 70¢ → 90¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No · $38 · 78¢ → 77¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes · $32 · 58¢ → 71¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No · $29 · 37¢ → 87¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No · $27 · 78¢ → 83¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No · $23 · 89¢ → 97¢
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No · $19 · 94¢ → 98¢
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?No · $17 · 82¢ → 93¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No · $17 · 20¢ → 56¢

Latest closed positions

Will Katie Zacharia be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes · +$0 · Oct 9, 2026
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?No · +$3 · Oct 7, 2026
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?Yes · +$28 · Oct 7, 2026
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?No · +$1 · Oct 6, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?No · +$8 · Oct 6, 2026
Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in September?No · +$0 · Oct 1, 2026
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.