Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-04 House election by 30% or more?
YES Price
19¢
19% implied
NO Price
81¢
81% implied
Volume
$13.5K
380 trades
Smart Whales
19
of 154 traders
MO-04 House Election Margin of Victory
8 MARKETS · $28.8K MATCHEDSmart Money
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
5 YESvs14 NO
26%74%
74% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 16% YES by dollars · 3 YES vs 3 NO taking a side
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $408 is directional: YES $66·NO $342YES Team
Total Invested
$362
Avg Win Rate
60.7%
Aggregate P&L
-$302(-83.5%)
Whales
5
A
Analyse24ResultsBefore🥇
Entry 2374¢·8.3 shares
Invested
$197
Win Rate
62.2%
Position P&L
$-195
$-195INV $197 · WR 62.2%
J
JAMJAMJAM4🥈
Entry 60¢·165 shares
Invested
$99
Win Rate
55.2%
Position P&L
$-67
$-67INV $99 · WR 55.2%
F
FishHunter🥉
Entry 52¢·102 shares
Invested
$53
Win Rate
65.5%
Position P&L
$-35
$-35INV $53 · WR 65.5%
F
Flobzzito
Entry 66¢·12 shares
Invested
$8
Win Rate
61.5%
Position P&L
$-6
$-6INV $8 · WR 61.5%
F
Female-Tailbud◆Proven
Entry 16¢·29.7 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
56.7%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $5 · WR 56.7%
NO Team
Total Invested
$585
Avg Win Rate
68.7%
Aggregate P&L
+$135(+23.1%)
Whales
14
R
RayGuy🥇
Entry 96¢·304.8 shares
Invested
$291
Win Rate
57.9%
Position P&L
$-41
$-41INV $291 · WR 57.9%
L
Lucerys🥈
Entry 70¢·74.4 shares
Invested
$52
Win Rate
87.6%
Position P&L
+$8
+$8INV $52 · WR 87.6%
B
balthazar🥉
Entry 81¢·60 shares
Invested
$49
Win Rate
71.9%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $49 · WR 71.9%
G
god83743894
Entry 30¢·135 shares
Invested
$40
Win Rate
86.0%
Position P&L
+$69
+$69INV $40 · WR 86.0%
G
godblessme2026
Entry 98¢·40 shares
Invested
$39
Win Rate
87.9%
Position P&L
$-7
$-7INV $39 · WR 87.9%
E
e46m3
Entry 38¢·85.7 shares
Invested
$33
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
+$37
+$37INV $33 · WR 79.2%
J
johnashbough
Entry 38¢·80 shares
Invested
$31
Win Rate
55.3%
Position P&L
+$35
+$35INV $31 · WR 55.3%
M
Malganis
Entry 99¢·20 shares
Invested
$20
Win Rate
73.2%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $20 · WR 73.2%
G
graynotebook19
Entry 38¢·30 shares
Invested
$11
Win Rate
89.0%
Position P&L
+$13
+$13INV $11 · WR 89.0%
Q
qwen300.fund
Entry 38¢·20 shares
Invested
$8
Win Rate
86.1%
Position P&L
+$9
+$9INV $8 · WR 86.1%
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