Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-04 House election by 30% or more?
YES Price
43¢
43% implied
NO Price
57¢
57% implied
Volume
$13.1K
488 trades
Smart Whales
26
of 148 traders
MO-04 House Election Margin of Victory
8 MARKETS · $28.4K MATCHEDSmart Money
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
11 YESvs15 NO
42%58%
58% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 81% YES by dollars · 6 YES vs 2 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 94%· net of hedges
+3 new YES$29+2 new NO$336
$17 of this was bought on both sides by the same 1 buyer — left out of momentum
0 smart whales1 smart whale
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $180 is directional: YES $146·NO $34YES Team
Total Invested
$595
Avg Win Rate
65.7%
Aggregate P&L
-$119(-19.9%)
Whales
11
M
mrworldwide◆Proven🥇
Entry 40¢·491.5 shares
Invested
$195
Win Rate
76.8%
Position P&L
+$17
+$17INV $195 · WR 76.8%
J
JAMJAMJAM4🥈
Entry 56¢·330 shares
Invested
$186
Win Rate
55.4%
Position P&L
$-44
$-44INV $186 · WR 55.4%
G
G.Hchen🥉
Entry 64¢·100 shares
Invested
$64
Win Rate
55.3%
Position P&L
$-21
$-21INV $64 · WR 55.3%
S
sweetjhedged
Entry 293¢·21 shares·also $70 on NO
Invested
$62
Win Rate
74.4%
Position P&L
$-52
$-52INV $62 · WR 74.4%
F
FishHunter
Entry 52¢·102 shares
Invested
$53
Win Rate
65.9%
Position P&L
$-9
$-9INV $53 · WR 65.9%
S
Slowbathroom
Entry 60¢·26 shares
Invested
$16
Win Rate
62.4%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $16 · WR 62.4%
F
Flobzzito
Entry 66¢·12 shares
Invested
$8
Win Rate
63.3%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $8 · WR 63.3%
E
Exotic-Scholarhedged
Entry 64¢·8.9 shares·also $12 on NO
Invested
$6
Win Rate
59.5%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $6 · WR 59.5%
S
Sui007
Entry 62¢·8 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
55.2%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $5 · WR 55.2%
L
Lucerys
Entry 9¢·1.6 shares
Invested
$0
Win Rate
88.0%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $0 · WR 88.0%
Showing top 10 of 11
NO Team
Total Invested
$599
Avg Win Rate
85.8%
Aggregate P&L
-$103(-17.2%)
Whales
15
R
RayGuy🥇
Entry 97¢·295 shares
Invested
$285
Win Rate
96.3%
Position P&L
$-118
$-118INV $285 · WR 96.3%
S
sweetj🥈hedged
Entry 334¢·21 shares·also $62 on YES
Invested
$70
Win Rate
74.4%
Position P&L
$-58
$-58INV $70 · WR 74.4%
B
balthazar🥉
Entry 81¢·60 shares
Invested
$49
Win Rate
72.1%
Position P&L
$-15
$-15INV $49 · WR 72.1%
G
god83743894
Entry 30¢·135 shares
Invested
$40
Win Rate
86.1%
Position P&L
+$36
+$36INV $40 · WR 86.1%
G
godblessme2026
Entry 50¢·80 shares
Invested
$40
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $40 · WR 88.2%
E
e46m3
Entry 38¢·85.7 shares
Invested
$33
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
+$16
+$16INV $33 · WR 79.6%
J
johnashbough◆Proven
Entry 38¢·80 shares
Invested
$31
Win Rate
56.2%
Position P&L
+$15
+$15INV $31 · WR 56.2%
E
Exotic-Scholarhedged
Entry 136¢·8.9 shares·also $6 on YES
Invested
$12
Win Rate
59.5%
Position P&L
$-7
$-7INV $12 · WR 59.5%
G
graynotebook19
Entry 38¢·30 shares
Invested
$11
Win Rate
89.2%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $11 · WR 89.2%
N
nefariouskermit
Entry 40¢·20 shares
Invested
$8
Win Rate
55.1%
Position P&L
+$3
+$3INV $8 · WR 55.1%
Showing top 10 of 15
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