Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-04 House election by 10%-15%?

Trade on Polymarket

YES Price

7¢

7% implied

NO Price

93¢

93% implied

Volume

$1.5K

89 trades

Smart Whales

11

of 53 traders

MO-04 House Election Margin of Victory

8 MARKETS · $28.4K MATCHED

Smart Money

43¢−3¢$13.1K10/15

by 30% or more−3¢43¢

49¢−28¢$3.6K3/11

by 25%-30%−28¢49¢

34¢−34¢$4.0K0/12

by 20%-25%−34¢34¢

4¢+5¢$1.6K1/10

by 15%-20%+5¢4¢

7¢−7¢$1.5K0/10

by 10%-15%←−7¢7¢

1¢−1¢$1.5K0/13

by 5%-10%−1¢1¢

1¢−1¢$1.1K0/11

by 0%-5%−1¢1¢

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-04 House election

18¢−9¢$1.9K1/10

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-04 House election−9¢18¢

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Smart Money Consensus

0 YESvs11 NO

100%

100% of smart money holding this market is on NO

Last 24h FlowNO momentum 93%

+5 new YES$3+1 new NO$37

0 smart whales1 smart whale

YES Team

Total Invested

$0

Avg Win Rate

unknown

Aggregate P&L

—

Whales

0

No smart whales on YES

NO Team

Total Invested

$436

Avg Win Rate

86.2%

Aggregate P&L

+$268(+61.5%)

Whales

11

graynotebook19🥇

Entry 50¢·270 shares

+$115INV $135 · WR 89.2%

Entry 53¢·142 shares

+$55INV $76 · WR 88.0%

Entry 50¢·119 shares

+$51INV $59 · WR 72.1%

Entry 94¢·38.9 shares

$-1INV $37 · WR 96.3%

Entry 85¢·35.8 shares

+$3INV $31 · WR 79.6%

Entry 95¢·30 shares

$-1INV $29 · WR 88.2%

Entry 50¢·50 shares

+$21INV $25 · WR 87.7%

Entry 50¢·40 shares

+$17INV $20 · WR 86.2%

Entry 99¢·15.3 shares

$-1INV $15 · WR 87.7%

Entry 48¢·10.3 shares

+$5INV $5 · WR 88.9%

Showing top 10 of 11

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Smart money 0% YES: the Republican Party candidate win…