Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-04 House election by 15%-20%?
YES Price
2¢
2% implied
NO Price
98¢
98% implied
Volume
$1.6K
78 trades
Smart Whales
12
of 48 traders
MO-04 House Election Margin of Victory
8 MARKETS · $28.4K MATCHEDSmart Money
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
1 YESvs11 NO
8%92%
92% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 3% YES by dollars · 1 YES vs 1 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 97%
+9 new YES$2+1 new NO$62
0 smart whales1 smart whale
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $64 is directional: YES $2·NO $62YES Team
Total Invested
$2
Avg Win Rate
56.3%
Aggregate P&L
-$0(-2.3%)
Whales
1
NO Team
Total Invested
$480
Avg Win Rate
87.0%
Aggregate P&L
+$199(+41.4%)
Whales
11
Q
quietparcel🥇
Entry 55¢·300 shares
Invested
$164
Win Rate
88.7%
Position P&L
+$130
+$130INV $164 · WR 88.7%
L
Lucerys🥈
Entry 87¢·81 shares
Invested
$70
Win Rate
88.0%
Position P&L
+$9
+$9INV $70 · WR 88.0%
R
RayGuy🥉
Entry 98¢·63.1 shares
Invested
$62
Win Rate
96.3%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $62 · WR 96.3%
B
balthazar
Entry 88¢·60 shares
Invested
$53
Win Rate
72.1%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $53 · WR 72.1%
N
northdrawer
Entry 89¢·40 shares
Invested
$36
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
+$4
+$4INV $36 · WR 87.7%
H
haveagoodday
Entry 50¢·50 shares
Invested
$25
Win Rate
87.0%
Position P&L
+$24
+$24INV $25 · WR 87.0%
E
e46m3
Entry 96¢·25.8 shares
Invested
$25
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $25 · WR 79.6%
Q
qwen300.fund
Entry 50¢·40 shares
Invested
$20
Win Rate
86.2%
Position P&L
+$19
+$19INV $20 · WR 86.2%
D
donthackme
Entry 99¢·15.3 shares
Invested
$15
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $15 · WR 87.7%
G
graynotebook19
Entry 50¢·10 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
89.2%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $5 · WR 89.2%
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