Economics62 days left
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?
YES Price
84¢
84% implied
NO Price
16¢
16% implied
Volume
$17.4K
658 trades
Smart Whales
32
of 157 traders
ECB Interest Rates: December 2026
5 MARKETS · $35.3K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting
1¢+12¢$2.7K2/14Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting+12¢1¢
$2.7K2/14
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting←
84¢−42¢$17.4K13/18Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting←−42¢84¢
$17.4K13/18
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting
1¢+11¢$2.5K2/15Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting+11¢1¢
$2.5K2/15
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
14 YESvs18 NO
44%56%
56% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 95% YES by dollars · 11 YES vs 2 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 81%· net of hedges
+5 new YES$435+13 new NO$111
$26 of this was bought on both sides by the same 4 buyers — left out of momentum
0 smart whales4 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $2.0K is directional: YES $1.9K·NO $95YES Team
Total Invested
$2.5K
Avg Win Rate
60.9%
Aggregate P&L
+$956(+38.7%)
Whales
14
F
firegold🥇
Entry 60¢·1,879.9 shares
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
59.6%
Position P&L
+$441
+$441INV $1.1K · WR 59.6%
6
6idontknow123451334🥈hedged
Entry 51¢·1,032 shares·also $326 on NO
Invested
$530
Win Rate
62.9%
Position P&L
+$331
+$331INV $530 · WR 62.9%
E
exothetajunkie🥉
Entry 70¢·623.4 shares
Invested
$438
Win Rate
59.7%
Position P&L
+$83
+$83INV $438 · WR 59.7%
S
Shameful-Refund
Entry 77¢·171.1 shares
Invested
$132
Win Rate
70.0%
Position P&L
+$11
+$11INV $132 · WR 70.0%
P
podairpod
Entry 60¢·200 shares
Invested
$120
Win Rate
59.2%
Position P&L
+$47
+$47INV $120 · WR 59.2%
C
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed
Entry 81¢·80.2 shares
Invested
$65
Win Rate
55.2%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $65 · WR 55.2%
H
Hugin-og-Munin
Entry 61¢·40 shares
Invested
$24
Win Rate
66.8%
Position P&L
+$9
+$9INV $24 · WR 66.8%
R
Renan2030hedged
Entry 27¢·40 shares·also $30 on NO
Invested
$11
Win Rate
77.4%
Position P&L
+$23
+$23INV $11 · WR 77.4%
K
KiernanMeister◆Proven
Entry 52¢·20 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
63.8%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $10 · WR 63.8%
E
Elias.Thornwell
Entry 64¢·3.7 shares
Invested
$2
Win Rate
68.2%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $2 · WR 68.2%
Showing top 10 of 14
NO Team
Total Invested
$1.2K
Avg Win Rate
76.5%
Aggregate P&L
-$780(-64.0%)
Whales
18
6
6idontknow123451334🥇hedged
Entry 100¢·324.4 shares·also $530 on YES
Invested
$326
Win Rate
62.9%
Position P&L
$-272
$-272INV $326 · WR 62.9%
G
god83743894🥈
Entry 36¢·680 shares
Invested
$246
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
$-134
$-134INV $246 · WR 85.8%
E
e46m3🥉
Entry 41¢·466.1 shares
Invested
$190
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
$-114
$-114INV $190 · WR 79.6%
D
donthackme
Entry 41¢·232.7 shares
Invested
$95
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-57
$-57INV $95 · WR 87.7%
B
balthazar
Entry 42¢·185.6 shares
Invested
$78
Win Rate
72.1%
Position P&L
$-47
$-47INV $78 · WR 72.1%
G
graynotebook19
Entry 48¢·130 shares
Invested
$62
Win Rate
89.3%
Position P&L
$-41
$-41INV $62 · WR 89.3%
H
hitunfar
Entry 65¢·89.5 shares
Invested
$58
Win Rate
61.0%
Position P&L
$-43
$-43INV $58 · WR 61.0%
N
northdrawer
Entry 31¢·148.3 shares
Invested
$46
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-22
$-22INV $46 · WR 87.7%
R
Renan2030hedged
Entry 75¢·40 shares·also $11 on YES
Invested
$30
Win Rate
77.4%
Position P&L
$-23
$-23INV $30 · WR 77.4%
M
mustbethewater
Entry 42¢·60 shares
Invested
$25
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
$-16
$-16INV $25 · WR 79.6%
Showing top 10 of 18
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