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Economics46 days left

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?

Trade on Polymarket
YES Price
86¢
86% implied
NO Price
14¢
14% implied
Volume
$25.6K
871 trades
Smart Whales
40
of 209 traders · 1 on both sides

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

5 MARKETS · $51.1K MATCHED

Smart Money Consensus

20 YESvs21 NO
49%51%
51% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 97% YES by dollars · 15 YES vs 1 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 89%· net of hedges
+10 new YES$657+13 new NO$106
$64 of this was bought on both sides by the same 5 buyers — left out of momentum
3 smart whales0 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$3 of $3.3K is hedged across different prices by 1 wallet. True directional: YES $3.2K·NO $88
YES Team
Total Invested
$3.8K
Avg Win Rate
60.6%
Aggregate P&L
+$1.2K(+31.0%)
Whales
20
P
podairpod🥇
Entry 73¢·1,637.4 shares
+$197INV $1.2K · WR 59.1%
F
firegold🥈
Entry 61¢·1,520.6 shares
+$375INV $925 · WR 59.5%
6
6idontknow123451334🥉hedged
Entry 51¢·1,032 shares·also $326 on NO
+$352INV $530 · WR 65.7%
E
exothetajunkie
Entry 70¢·623.4 shares
+$95INV $438 · WR 59.4%
S
StarMasterProven
Entry 84¢·400 shares
+$7INV $335 · WR 55.4%
S
Shameful-Refund
Entry 77¢·171.1 shares
+$15INV $132 · WR 71.9%
Y
yamaurishedged
Entry 50¢·100 shares·also $1 on NO
+$36INV $50 · WR 55.4%
S
Skaliz
Entry 65¢·54 shares
+$11INV $35 · WR 58.2%
N
new-account-test222
Entry 81¢·35 shares
+$2INV $28 · WR 61.5%
H
Hugin-og-Munin
Entry 60¢·40 shares
+$10INV $24 · WR 66.5%
Showing top 10 of 20

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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Smart money 49% YES: the ECB announce a 25 bps increase…