GeopoliticsResolved

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

YES Price
14¢
14% implied
NO Price
86¢
86% implied
Volume
$909.3K
7,544 trades
Smart Whales
284
of 1,310 traders · 3 on both sides

Smart Money Consensus

172 YESvs115 NO
60%40%
60% of smart money holding this market is on YESNet of both-sides wallets: 11% YES by dollars · 51 YES vs 88 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 82%· net of hedges
+17 new YES$3.4K+32 new NO$14.4K
$655 of this was bought on both sides by the same 8 buyers — left out of momentum
2 smart whales11 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$462 of $241.2K is hedged across different prices by 3 wallets. True directional: YES $25.8K·NO $214.9K

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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Smart money 60% YES: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December…