Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-04 House election by 5%-10%?
YES Price
46¢
46% implied
NO Price
54¢
54% implied
Volume
$945
65 trades
Smart Whales
12
of 43 traders
OR-04 House Election Margin of Victory
9 MARKETS · $37.8K MATCHEDSmart Money
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
1 YESvs11 NO
Wallets vs price
Price 46¢
YES 8%NO 92%of Smart Money wallets holding this marketYES price 46¢
Net of both-sides wallets: 100% YES by dollars · 1 YES vs 0 NO taking a side
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
Teams by
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $6 is directional: YES $6·NO $0YES Team
Total Invested
$6
Avg Win Rate
71.3%
Aggregate P&L
+$40(+659.0%)
Whales
1
NO Team
Total Invested
$163
Avg Win Rate
83.2%
Aggregate P&L
-$62(-38.2%)
Whales
11
G
god83743894🥇
Entry 97¢·60 shares
Invested
$58
Win Rate
86.0%
Position P&L
$-26
$-26INV $58 · WR 86.0%
C
C.PM🥈
Entry 94¢·30 shares
Invested
$28
Win Rate
82.9%
Position P&L
$-12
$-12INV $28 · WR 82.9%
E
e46m3🥉
Entry 95¢·23.9 shares
Invested
$23
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
$-10
$-10INV $23 · WR 79.2%
S
Spectacular-Ladder-Ant
Entry 91¢·12.1 shares
Invested
$11
Win Rate
79.3%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $11 · WR 79.3%
Q
qwen300.fund
Entry 95¢·10 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
86.1%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $9 · WR 86.1%
G
godblessme2026
Entry 45¢·20 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
87.9%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $9 · WR 87.9%
K
Klutzy-Lode-Notepad
Entry 92¢·9.6 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
78.1%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $9 · WR 78.1%
L
Leading-Craft
Entry 92¢·6.2 shares
Invested
$6
Win Rate
83.9%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $6 · WR 83.9%
Q
quietparcel
Entry 100¢·5 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
88.5%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $5 · WR 88.5%
H
Hugin-og-Munin
Entry 91¢·5 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
66.8%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $5 · WR 66.8%
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