Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-04 House election by 15%-20%?
YES Price
45¢
45% implied
NO Price
55¢
55% implied
Volume
$10.6K
275 trades
Smart Whales
12
of 111 traders · 1 on both sides
OR-04 House Election Margin of Victory
9 MARKETS · $37.8K MATCHEDSmart Money
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
4 YESvs9 NO
Wallets vs price
Price 45¢
YES 31%NO 69%of Smart Money wallets holding this marketYES price 45¢
Net of both-sides wallets: 96% YES by dollars · 3 YES vs 1 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 97%
$6
$200
+1 new YES+1 new NO
Teams by
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$2 of $115 is hedged across different prices by 1 wallet. True directional: YES $109·NO $4YES Team
Total Invested
$110
Avg Win Rate
60.1%
Aggregate P&L
+$142(+129.0%)
Whales
4
F
fkpa🥇
Entry 20¢·303.1 shares
Invested
$61
Win Rate
59.6%
Position P&L
+$74
+$74INV $61 · WR 59.6%
T
thanksforplayin🥈
Entry 20¢·164.2 shares
Invested
$33
Win Rate
55.9%
Position P&L
+$38
+$38INV $33 · WR 55.9%
S
sweetj🥉
Entry 15¢·99 shares
Invested
$15
Win Rate
71.3%
Position P&L
+$30
+$30INV $15 · WR 71.3%
D
0xd4eb89f8...hedged
Entry 27¢·3.8 shares·also $5 on NO
Invested
$1
Win Rate
62.2%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $1 · WR 62.2%
NO Team
Total Invested
$169
Avg Win Rate
82.8%
Aggregate P&L
-$53(-31.5%)
Whales
9
E
e46m3🥇
Entry 85¢·67 shares
Invested
$57
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
$-20
$-20INV $57 · WR 79.2%
P
plainfolder🥈
Entry 80¢·50 shares
Invested
$40
Win Rate
86.1%
Position P&L
$-12
$-12INV $40 · WR 86.1%
G
god83743894🥉
Entry 76¢·35 shares
Invested
$27
Win Rate
86.0%
Position P&L
$-7
$-7INV $27 · WR 86.0%
N
northdrawer
Entry 79¢·20 shares
Invested
$16
Win Rate
87.5%
Position P&L
$-5
$-5INV $16 · WR 87.5%
S
smallreceipt
Entry 89¢·10 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
88.6%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $9 · WR 88.6%
Q
qwen300.fund
Entry 74¢·10 shares
Invested
$7
Win Rate
86.1%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $7 · WR 86.1%
D
0xd4eb89f8...hedged
Entry 76¢·6.7 shares·also $1 on YES
Invested
$5
Win Rate
62.2%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $5 · WR 62.2%
H
Hugin-og-Munin
Entry 87¢·5 shares
Invested
$4
Win Rate
66.8%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $4 · WR 66.8%
F
fourcoin15m
Entry 86¢·5 shares
Invested
$4
Win Rate
84.0%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $4 · WR 84.0%
Smart Whale Trades
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Price History (YES)
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