Politics1 days left
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
YES Price
20¢
20% implied
NO Price
80¢
80% implied
Volume
$94.3K
2,491 trades
Smart Whales
110
of 421 traders · 4 on both sides
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
11 MARKETS · $846.9K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
0¢+30¢$223.2K21/48Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+30¢0¢
$223.2K21/48
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
0¢+36¢$10.7K20/35Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+36¢0¢
$10.7K20/35
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
29 YESvs85 NO
25%75%
75% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 22% YES by dollars · 13 YES vs 28 NO taking a side · 1 on both sides
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 60%· net of hedges
+25 new YES$3.2K+20 new NO$4.7K
$858 of this was bought on both sides by the same 7 buyers — left out of momentum
3 smart whales11 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$10 of $10.5K is hedged across different prices by 4 wallets. True directional: YES $2.3K·NO $8.2KYES Team
Total Invested
$7.3K
Avg Win Rate
75.5%
Aggregate P&L
-$3.9K(-53.4%)
Whales
29
L
LulaVaiPerder🥇hedged
Entry 75¢·2,427.1 shares·also $261 on NO
Invested
$1.8K
Win Rate
76.7%
Position P&L
$-1354
$-1354INV $1.8K · WR 76.7%
6
65765757🥈hedged
Entry 78¢·2,317.7 shares·also $608 on NO
Invested
$1.8K
Win Rate
79.1%
Position P&L
$-1359
$-1359INV $1.8K · WR 79.1%
M
megaforest🥉
Entry 32¢·4,512.2 shares
Invested
$1.4K
Win Rate
75.0%
Position P&L
$-528
$-528INV $1.4K · WR 75.0%
R
RenanPresidente.hedged
Entry 71¢·1,018.8 shares·also $338 on NO
Invested
$725
Win Rate
77.4%
Position P&L
$-527
$-527INV $725 · WR 77.4%
B
balthazar
Entry 19¢·1,756.5 shares
Invested
$327
Win Rate
72.1%
Position P&L
+$27
+$27INV $327 · WR 72.1%
T
themain
Entry 30¢·820.9 shares
Invested
$250
Win Rate
63.6%
Position P&L
$-84
$-84INV $250 · WR 63.6%
M
melchior1248
Entry 26¢·632.8 shares
Invested
$167
Win Rate
68.9%
Position P&L
$-44
$-44INV $167 · WR 68.9%
J
JAMJAMJAM4
Entry 27¢·421 shares
Invested
$114
Win Rate
55.2%
Position P&L
$-30
$-30INV $114 · WR 55.2%
H
hfgdzb
Entry 24¢·424 shares
Invested
$100
Win Rate
57.6%
Position P&L
$-15
$-15INV $100 · WR 57.6%
M
Musk5
Entry 21¢·200 shares
Invested
$41
Win Rate
71.7%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $41 · WR 71.7%
Showing top 10 of 29
NO Team
Total Invested
$16.1K
Avg Win Rate
68.2%
Aggregate P&L
+$4.8K(+29.6%)
Whales
85
C
conherence🥇
Entry 75¢·5,478.1 shares
Invested
$4.1K
Win Rate
58.7%
Position P&L
+$266
+$266INV $4.1K · WR 58.7%
C
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed🥈
Entry 76¢·1,813.2 shares
Invested
$1.4K
Win Rate
55.3%
Position P&L
+$76
+$76INV $1.4K · WR 55.3%
B
Bikesarethebest◆Proven🥉
Entry 70¢·1,612.6 shares
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
56.1%
Position P&L
+$155
+$155INV $1.1K · WR 56.1%
V
VictorLudorum
Entry 55¢·1,709.6 shares
Invested
$943
Win Rate
88.1%
Position P&L
+$433
+$433INV $943 · WR 88.1%
L
Lucerys
Entry 52¢·1,530.8 shares
Invested
$801
Win Rate
87.0%
Position P&L
+$431
+$431INV $801 · WR 87.0%
R
Ryxon21
Entry 76¢·970 shares
Invested
$734
Win Rate
69.5%
Position P&L
+$41
+$41INV $734 · WR 69.5%
6
65765757hedged
Entry 26¢·2,317.7 shares·also $1.8K on YES
Invested
$608
Win Rate
79.1%
Position P&L
+$1258
+$1258INV $608 · WR 79.1%
G
graynotebook19
Entry 90¢·640.8 shares
Invested
$574
Win Rate
89.3%
Position P&L
$-58
$-58INV $574 · WR 89.3%
G
glm404.fund
Entry 78¢·555 shares
Invested
$431
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$16
+$16INV $431 · WR 85.8%
R
RenanPresidente.hedged
Entry 33¢·1,018.8 shares·also $725 on YES
Invested
$338
Win Rate
77.4%
Position P&L
+$483
+$483INV $338 · WR 77.4%
Showing top 10 of 85
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