Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
YES Price
54¢
54% implied
NO Price
46¢
46% implied
Volume
$212.5K
4,538 trades
Smart Whales
141
of 698 traders · 2 on both sides
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
11 MARKETS · $1.27M MATCHEDSmart Money
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
0¢+31¢$223.2K22/48Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+31¢0¢
$223.2K22/48
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
0¢+36¢$10.7K20/35Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+36¢0¢
$10.7K20/35
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
49 YESvs94 NO
34%66%
66% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 92% YES by dollars · 35 YES vs 33 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 60%· net of hedges
+118 new YES$22.8K+109 new NO$15.7K
$4.0K of this was bought on both sides by the same 42 buyers — left out of momentum
26 smart whales42 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$104 of $47.9K is hedged across different prices by 2 wallets. True directional: YES $44.1K·NO $3.7KYES Team
Total Invested
$44.4K
Avg Win Rate
79.0%
Aggregate P&L
-$1.4K(-3.1%)
Whales
49
6
65765757🥇
Entry 60¢·20,234.5 shares
Invested
$12.1K
Win Rate
79.1%
Position P&L
$-722
$-722INV $12.1K · WR 79.1%
R
RenanPresidente.🥈
Entry 53¢·18,480.7 shares
Invested
$9.9K
Win Rate
77.4%
Position P&L
+$491
+$491INV $9.9K · WR 77.4%
F
FLash7-134🥉
Entry 72¢·13,607.7 shares
Invested
$9.8K
Win Rate
87.5%
Position P&L
$-2160
$-2160INV $9.8K · WR 87.5%
L
LulaVaiPerder
Entry 62¢·7,040.5 shares
Invested
$4.4K
Win Rate
76.7%
Position P&L
$-451
$-451INV $4.4K · WR 76.7%
T
ThanksGivingTurkey1001
Entry 57¢·7,153.9 shares
Invested
$4.1K
Win Rate
70.1%
Position P&L
$-75
$-75INV $4.1K · WR 70.1%
M
megaforest
Entry 53¢·4,731.8 shares
Invested
$2.5K
Win Rate
75.0%
Position P&L
+$120
+$120INV $2.5K · WR 75.0%
B
balthazarhedged
Entry 17¢·2,204.3 shares·also $51 on NO
Invested
$377
Win Rate
72.2%
Position P&L
+$858
+$858INV $377 · WR 72.2%
R
Ryxon21
Entry 56¢·500 shares
Invested
$280
Win Rate
69.5%
Position P&L
—
—INV $280 · WR 69.5%
A
Augustttt
Entry 48¢·439.7 shares
Invested
$210
Win Rate
68.6%
Position P&L
+$37
+$37INV $210 · WR 68.6%
R
Rods26
Entry 59¢·170.1 shares
Invested
$100
Win Rate
56.7%
Position P&L
$-5
$-5INV $100 · WR 56.7%
Showing top 10 of 49
NO Team
Total Invested
$11.4K
Avg Win Rate
77.0%
Aggregate P&L
+$233(+2.0%)
Whales
94
C
conherence🥇
Entry 36¢·4,868.9 shares
Invested
$1.8K
Win Rate
58.7%
Position P&L
+$329
+$329INV $1.8K · WR 58.7%
L
Lucerys🥈
Entry 46¢·2,667.5 shares
Invested
$1.2K
Win Rate
87.1%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $1.2K · WR 87.1%
G
glm404.fund🥉
Entry 40¢·2,163.9 shares
Invested
$874
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$122
+$122INV $874 · WR 85.8%
Q
quietparcel
Entry 60¢·959.7 shares
Invested
$573
Win Rate
88.7%
Position P&L
$-132
$-132INV $573 · WR 88.7%
V
VictorLudorum
Entry 46¢·974.7 shares
Invested
$444
Win Rate
88.1%
Position P&L
+$4
+$4INV $444 · WR 88.1%
S
smallreceipt
Entry 46¢·783.4 shares
Invested
$361
Win Rate
89.0%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $361 · WR 89.0%
G
god83743894
Entry 53¢·655.1 shares
Invested
$350
Win Rate
85.6%
Position P&L
$-49
$-49INV $350 · WR 85.6%
D
donthackme
Entry 41¢·836.7 shares
Invested
$340
Win Rate
87.6%
Position P&L
+$20
+$20INV $340 · WR 87.6%
B
BiDiFakePolls
Entry 52¢·500 shares
Invested
$260
Win Rate
59.7%
Position P&L
$-45
$-45INV $260 · WR 59.7%
G
godblessme2026
Entry 41¢·629.2 shares
Invested
$260
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
+$29
+$29INV $260 · WR 88.2%
Showing top 10 of 94
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