Complex-Twister · Polymarket wallet 0x8195…34b6

Wallet snapshot

Complex-Twister has made 344 trades on Polymarket across 128 markets, $3,443 in volume. Most of it is in politics (26%) and geopolitics (18%). On 114 resolved markets the win rate is 63.2%, lifetime P&L -$16. It holds 10 open positions right now; the largest is Yes on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?". Last trade: Sep 17, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes · $15 · 53¢ → 81¢
• Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Yes · $12 · 47¢ → 55¢
• Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes · $3 · 34¢ → 15¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No · $2 · 27¢ → 10¢
• Maduro guilty of all counts?Yes · $1 · 52¢ → 28¢
• Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes · $1 · 3¢ → 1¢
• Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes · $1 · 26¢ → 10¢
• Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes · $1 · 54¢ → 48¢
• Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?Yes · $1 · 76¢ → 5¢
• Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes · $0 · 9¢ → 0¢

Latest closed positions

• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No · -$1 · Sep 17, 2026
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes · +$2 · Sep 16, 2026
• Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?Yes · +$2 · Jun 12, 2026
• US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?No · +$2 · Jun 1, 2026
• Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?No · +$2 · May 30, 2026
• Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?No · +$0 · May 27, 2026
• Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?

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