80 days left
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
YES Price
49¢
49% implied
NO Price
51¢
51% implied
Volume
$275.4K
2,740 trades
Smart Whales
71
of 748 traders
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
6 MARKETS · $1.17M MATCHEDSmart Money
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026
22¢+10¢$500.9K29/61Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026+10¢22¢
$500.9K29/61
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026←
49¢−11¢$275.4K27/44Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026←−11¢49¢
$275.4K27/44
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026
9¢+14¢$46.5K13/43Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026+14¢9¢
$46.5K13/43
Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026
9¢+12¢$32.4K10/38Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026+12¢9¢
$32.4K10/38
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
27 YESvs44 NO
38%62%
62% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 99% YES by dollars · 13 YES vs 3 NO taking a side
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $1.5K is directional: YES $1.5K·NO $18YES Team
Total Invested
$1.9K
Avg Win Rate
63.4%
Aggregate P&L
+$992(+51.5%)
Whales
27
A
ArmageddonRewardsBilly🥇
Entry 40¢·1,302.9 shares
Invested
$516
Win Rate
57.7%
Position P&L
+$70
+$70INV $516 · WR 57.7%
D
DEGENKHAN◆Proven🥈
Entry 41¢·1,028 shares
Invested
$422
Win Rate
66.6%
Position P&L
+$67
+$67INV $422 · WR 66.6%
L
LieutenantMiloMinderbinder🥉
Entry 15¢·1,546 shares
Invested
$232
Win Rate
70.0%
Position P&L
+$464
+$464INV $232 · WR 70.0%
Z
zhongdian
Entry 44¢·408 shares
Invested
$180
Win Rate
56.3%
Position P&L
+$4
+$4INV $180 · WR 56.3%
1
1walrushedged
Entry 79¢·179.6 shares·also $87 on NO
Invested
$141
Win Rate
65.1%
Position P&L
$-54
$-54INV $141 · WR 65.1%
5
5atkahedged
Entry 59¢·140.5 shares·also $69 on NO
Invested
$83
Win Rate
57.1%
Position P&L
$-15
$-15INV $83 · WR 57.1%
H
haruk098
Entry 44¢·135 shares
Invested
$59
Win Rate
76.0%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $59 · WR 76.0%
A
Anguished-Medicinehedged
Entry 81¢·57.8 shares·also $5 on NO
Invested
$47
Win Rate
69.0%
Position P&L
$-19
$-19INV $47 · WR 69.0%
K
kaifu-lodge
Entry 43¢·73 shares
Invested
$31
Win Rate
60.0%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $31 · WR 60.0%
P
purebabyhedged
Entry 41¢·76.2 shares·also $48 on NO
Invested
$31
Win Rate
61.0%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $31 · WR 61.0%
Showing top 10 of 27
NO Team
Total Invested
$3.5K
Avg Win Rate
81.2%
Aggregate P&L
-$114(-3.2%)
Whales
44
I
influenz.eth🥇
Entry 59¢·2,594.7 shares
Invested
$1.5K
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
$-192
$-192INV $1.5K · WR 85.8%
M
melchior1248🥈
Entry 57¢·842 shares
Invested
$479
Win Rate
69.2%
Position P&L
$-46
$-46INV $479 · WR 69.2%
R
rated🥉
Entry 58¢·533.5 shares
Invested
$307
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-33
$-33INV $307 · WR 87.7%
R
rainbowlilies
Entry 35¢·600 shares
Invested
$207
Win Rate
84.8%
Position P&L
+$102
+$102INV $207 · WR 84.8%
N
Novus0rdoSeclorum
Entry 57¢·275 shares
Invested
$157
Win Rate
83.8%
Position P&L
$-15
$-15INV $157 · WR 83.8%
M
mymacbook◆Proven
Entry 44¢·209 shares
Invested
$92
Win Rate
80.1%
Position P&L
+$15
+$15INV $92 · WR 80.1%
1
1walrushedged
Entry 49¢·179.6 shares·also $141 on YES
Invested
$87
Win Rate
65.1%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $87 · WR 65.1%
5
5atkahedged
Entry 49¢·140.6 shares·also $83 on YES
Invested
$69
Win Rate
57.1%
Position P&L
+$4
+$4INV $69 · WR 57.1%
P
purebabyhedged
Entry 62¢·76.2 shares·also $31 on YES
Invested
$48
Win Rate
61.0%
Position P&L
$-8
$-8INV $48 · WR 61.0%
P
products
Entry 57¢·75 shares
Invested
$43
Win Rate
86.6%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $43 · WR 86.6%
Showing top 10 of 44
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