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Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?

View on Polymarket
YES Price
43ยข
43% implied
NO Price
57ยข
57% implied
Volume
$275.1K
2,696 trades
Smart Whales
70
of 744 traders

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI โ‰ฅ4) in 2026?

6 MARKETS ยท $1.17M MATCHED

Smart Money Consensus

29 YESvs41 NO
41%59%
59% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 99% YES by dollars ยท 13 YES vs 2 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 54%
+1 new YES$43+3 new NO$36
1 smart whale0 smart whales
Both-sides exposure ยท invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides โ€” all $1.5K is directional: YES $1.5KยทNO $15
YES Team
Total Invested
$1.9K
Avg Win Rate
63.4%
Aggregate P&L
+$1.0K(+54.5%)
Whales
29
A
ArmageddonRewardsBilly๐Ÿฅ‡
Entry 40ยขยท1,302.9 shares
+$50INV $516 ยท WR 57.8%
D
DEGENKHANProven๐Ÿฅˆ
Entry 40ยขยท959.7 shares
+$56INV $385 ยท WR 66.7%
L
LieutenantMiloMinderbinder๐Ÿฅ‰
Entry 15ยขยท1,546 shares
+$472INV $232 ยท WR 70.1%
Z
zhongdian
Entry 44ยขยท408 shares
+$6INV $180 ยท WR 56.3%
1
1walrushedged
Entry 79ยขยท179.6 sharesยทalso $87 on NO
$-65INV $141 ยท WR 64.7%
5
5atkahedged
Entry 59ยขยท140.5 sharesยทalso $69 on NO
$-24INV $83 ยท WR 57.2%
H
haruk098
Entry 44ยขยท135 shares
+$2INV $59 ยท WR 76.0%
A
Anguished-Medicinehedged
Entry 81ยขยท57.8 sharesยทalso $5 on NO
$-22INV $47 ยท WR 68.9%
K
kaifu-lodge
Entry 43ยขยท73 shares
+$2INV $31 ยท WR 60.0%
P
purebabyhedged
Entry 41ยขยท76.2 sharesยทalso $48 on NO
+$1INV $31 ยท WR 60.6%
Showing top 10 of 29

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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Smart money 39% YES: there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4โ€ฆ