Politics13 days left
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-01 House election by 35%-40%?
YES Price
33¢
33% implied
NO Price
67¢
67% implied
Volume
$7.6K
388 trades
Smart Whales
14
of 95 traders
AR-01 House Election Margin of Victory
10 MARKETS · $26.5K MATCHEDSmart Money
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
3 YESvs11 NO
21%79%
79% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 100% YES by dollars · 1 YES vs 0 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 86%· net of hedges
+3 new YES$14+2 new NO$54
$13 of this was bought on both sides by the same 1 buyer — left out of momentum
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $57 is directional: YES $57·NO $0YES Team
Total Invested
$64
Avg Win Rate
64.0%
Aggregate P&L
+$180(+280.9%)
Whales
3
K
KiernanMeister◆Proven🥇
Entry 8¢·742.7 shares
Invested
$57
Win Rate
63.6%
Position P&L
+$184
+$184INV $57 · WR 63.6%
H
Hugin-og-Munin🥈hedged
Entry 79¢·5 shares·also $2 on NO
Invested
$4
Win Rate
66.7%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $4 · WR 66.7%
G
garbagecollect4🥉hedged
Entry 71¢·4.3 shares·also $1 on NO
Invested
$3
Win Rate
68.8%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $3 · WR 68.8%
NO Team
Total Invested
$284
Avg Win Rate
87.3%
Aggregate P&L
+$46(+16.3%)
Whales
11
G
godblessme2026🥇
Entry 60¢·192 shares
Invested
$115
Win Rate
88.1%
Position P&L
+$14
+$14INV $115 · WR 88.1%
G
graynotebook19🥈
Entry 66¢·56 shares
Invested
$37
Win Rate
89.3%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $37 · WR 89.3%
Q
qwen4.1.fund🥉
Entry 49¢·62.1 shares
Invested
$31
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
+$11
+$11INV $31 · WR 85.9%
S
smallreceipt
Entry 56¢·50 shares
Invested
$28
Win Rate
89.0%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $28 · WR 89.0%
N
northdrawer
Entry 50¢·37.3 shares
Invested
$18
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
+$7
+$7INV $18 · WR 87.7%
E
e46m3
Entry 71¢·20 shares
Invested
$14
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $14 · WR 79.6%
G
god83743894
Entry 66¢·20 shares
Invested
$13
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $13 · WR 85.9%
Q
quietparcel
Entry 65¢·20 shares
Invested
$13
Win Rate
88.7%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $13 · WR 88.7%
H
haveagoodday
Entry 50¢·22.5 shares
Invested
$11
Win Rate
86.6%
Position P&L
+$4
+$4INV $11 · WR 86.6%
H
Hugin-og-Muninhedged
Entry 31¢·5 shares·also $4 on YES
Invested
$2
Win Rate
66.7%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $2 · WR 66.7%
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