Geopolitics25 days left
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?
YES Price
38¢
38% implied
NO Price
62¢
62% implied
Volume
$125.2K
347 trades
Smart Whales
39
of 169 traders · 3 on both sides
US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?
6 MARKETS · $698.0K MATCHEDSmart Money
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026
30¢+12¢$109.8K10/14US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026+12¢30¢
$109.8K10/14
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026
62¢−17¢$151.0K15/18US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026−17¢62¢
$151.0K15/18
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026←
38¢−11¢$125.2K7/19US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026←−11¢38¢
$125.2K7/19
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026
99¢−14¢$123.5K33/6US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026−14¢99¢
$123.5K33/6
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
15 YESvs27 NO
36%64%
64% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 27% YES by dollars · 12 YES vs 25 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 70%· net of hedges
+43 new YES$19.0K+63 new NO$39.4K
$6.8K of this was bought on both sides by the same 12 buyers — left out of momentum
14 smart whales22 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$6.8K of $38.3K is hedged across different prices by 3 wallets. True directional: YES $8.4K·NO $23.1KYES Team
Total Invested
$11.8K
Avg Win Rate
76.7%
Aggregate P&L
-$1.1K(-9.6%)
Whales
15
C
classified🥇hedged
Entry 41¢·16,028.9 shares·also $3.4K on NO
Invested
$6.6K
Win Rate
81.2%
Position P&L
$-630
$-630INV $6.6K · WR 81.2%
N
notimeforcaution🥈
Entry 41¢·9,808.7 shares
Invested
$4.0K
Win Rate
72.2%
Position P&L
$-376
$-376INV $4.0K · WR 72.2%
C
Capital-Endoderm🥉
Entry 43¢·1,000 shares
Invested
$430
Win Rate
59.9%
Position P&L
$-60
$-60INV $430 · WR 59.9%
K
KimJonEn
Entry 41¢·1,000 shares
Invested
$410
Win Rate
74.2%
Position P&L
$-40
$-40INV $410 · WR 74.2%
B
BloodyMummer◆Proven
Entry 41¢·407.5 shares
Invested
$167
Win Rate
78.9%
Position P&L
$-16
$-16INV $167 · WR 78.9%
M
mrkinetiq
Entry 37¢·434.5 shares
Invested
$162
Win Rate
57.8%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $162 · WR 57.8%
S
Suet-Lam
Entry 42¢·65 shares
Invested
$27
Win Rate
61.3%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $27 · WR 61.3%
S
Staid-Elongation
Entry 43¢·34.9 shares
Invested
$15
Win Rate
61.0%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $15 · WR 61.0%
F
Fickle-Halt-Window
Entry 38¢·35.9 shares
Invested
$14
Win Rate
60.1%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $14 · WR 60.1%
G
G24L8
Entry 51¢·20 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
68.0%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $10 · WR 68.0%
Showing top 10 of 15
NO Team
Total Invested
$26.6K
Avg Win Rate
65.5%
Aggregate P&L
+$2.5K(+9.3%)
Whales
27
P
paddaa🥇
Entry 58¢·26,653.6 shares
Invested
$15.5K
Win Rate
60.9%
Position P&L
+$1306
+$1306INV $15.5K · WR 60.9%
C
classified🥈hedged
Entry 56¢·6,084.4 shares·also $6.6K on YES
Invested
$3.4K
Win Rate
81.2%
Position P&L
+$431
+$431INV $3.4K · WR 81.2%
P
PantheraUncia🥉
Entry 57¢·4,604.3 shares
Invested
$2.6K
Win Rate
58.3%
Position P&L
+$276
+$276INV $2.6K · WR 58.3%
N
neetbets◆Proven
Entry 58¢·1,998 shares
Invested
$1.2K
Win Rate
78.5%
Position P&L
+$100
+$100INV $1.2K · WR 78.5%
R
rainbowlilies
Entry 57¢·2,006 shares
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
83.8%
Position P&L
+$125
+$125INV $1.1K · WR 83.8%
F
ferraracesare
Entry 59¢·1,200 shares
Invested
$708
Win Rate
58.1%
Position P&L
+$48
+$48INV $708 · WR 58.1%
G
godpls
Entry 56¢·654.2 shares
Invested
$364
Win Rate
81.1%
Position P&L
+$48
+$48INV $364 · WR 81.1%
W
Worthy-Lament
Entry 59¢·500 shares
Invested
$297
Win Rate
61.6%
Position P&L
+$18
+$18INV $297 · WR 61.6%
T
Tenebrus7◆Proven
Entry 57¢·451.8 shares
Invested
$259
Win Rate
74.3%
Position P&L
+$26
+$26INV $259 · WR 74.3%
7
0x7f6d3eb8...
Entry 59¢·410.4 shares
Invested
$241
Win Rate
59.4%
Position P&L
+$17
+$17INV $241 · WR 59.4%
Showing top 10 of 27
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