🐋OrcaLayer
Sign In
Geopolitics56 days left

US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?

Trade on Polymarket
YES Price
32¢
32% implied
NO Price
68¢
68% implied
Volume
$66.1K
122 trades
Smart Whales
19
of 82 traders · 1 on both sides

US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?

6 MARKETS · $233.9K MATCHED

Smart Money Consensus

8 YESvs12 NO
40%60%
60% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 22% YES by dollars · 7 YES vs 11 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 70%· net of hedges
+48 new YES$20.9K+53 new NO$44.8K
$5.2K of this was bought on both sides by the same 18 buyers — left out of momentum
8 smart whales13 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$7 of $31.9K is hedged across different prices by 1 wallet. True directional: YES $7.0K·NO $24.9K
YES Team
Total Invested
$7.0K
Avg Win Rate
68.6%
Aggregate P&L
+$426(+6.1%)
Whales
8
M
m4ds🥇
Entry 30¢·12,740.4 shares
+$236INV $3.8K · WR 72.2%
C
Car🥈
Entry 29¢·9,334 shares
+$198INV $2.7K · WR 65.0%
C
chicanery.🥉
Entry 32¢·1,000 shares
$-5INV $320 · WR 61.0%
D
Dondigidin
Entry 33¢·200 shares
$-3INV $66 · WR 63.9%
M
mad4x
Entry 31¢·187 shares
+$1INV $58 · WR 56.1%
4
0x4e84ce15...
Entry 34¢·90 shares
$-2INV $31 · WR 58.8%
L
Lolakis
Entry 31¢·73.5 shares
+$0INV $23 · WR 61.6%
C
classifiedhedged
Entry 26¢·13.5 shares·also $18.0K on NO
+$1INV $4 · WR 81.3%

Smart Whale Trades

Loading trades...

Price History (YES)

Loading chart...
Loaded in 59ms
Smart money 42% YES: US x Iran effective ceasefire…