Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 44% and 47% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES Price
92¢
92% implied
NO Price
8¢
8% implied
Volume
$11.2K
252 trades
Smart Whales
33
of 98 traders
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share? (Higher Strikes)
6 MARKETS · $34.6K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win less than 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
8¢+12¢$14.1K2/8Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win less than 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+12¢8¢
$14.1K2/8
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 44% and 47% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election←
92¢−79¢$11.2K2/14Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 44% and 47% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election←−79¢92¢
$11.2K2/14
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 47% and 50% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
1¢+8¢$5.3K1/10Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 47% and 50% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+8¢1¢
$5.3K1/10
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 50% and 53% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
0¢+30¢$6743/7Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 50% and 53% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+30¢0¢
$6743/7
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 53% and 56% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
0¢+18¢$1.7K2/9Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 53% and 56% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+18¢0¢
$1.7K2/9
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Smart Money Consensus
9 YESvs24 NO
27%73%
73% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 84% YES by dollars · 8 YES vs 6 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 89%· net of hedges
+39 new YES$6.6K+44 new NO$1.1K
$652 of this was bought on both sides by the same 13 buyers — left out of momentum
7 smart whales18 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $3.2K is directional: YES $2.6K·NO $508YES Team
Total Invested
$2.7K
Avg Win Rate
68.2%
Aggregate P&L
+$174(+6.6%)
Whales
9
S
SnowLover7◆Proven🥇
Entry 85¢·1,581.2 shares
Invested
$1.3K
Win Rate
65.5%
Position P&L
+$117
+$117INV $1.3K · WR 65.5%
A
almost-never🥈
Entry 89¢·1,200.4 shares
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
73.4%
Position P&L
+$41
+$41INV $1.1K · WR 73.4%
G
gambler925🥉
Entry 88¢·138 shares
Invested
$121
Win Rate
56.3%
Position P&L
+$7
+$7INV $121 · WR 56.3%
A
0xabb9d267...
Entry 88¢·50.6 shares
Invested
$44
Win Rate
65.9%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $44 · WR 65.9%
C
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed
Entry 92¢·30 shares
Invested
$28
Win Rate
55.4%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $28 · WR 55.4%
S
StormRazer
Entry 86¢·30 shares
Invested
$26
Win Rate
59.2%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $26 · WR 59.2%
L
lindseygibbs
Entry 56¢·15.2 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
80.8%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $9 · WR 80.8%
B
big-bird1
Entry 87¢·2.1 shares
Invested
$2
Win Rate
68.7%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $2 · WR 68.7%
Showing top 8 of 9
NO Team
Total Invested
$2.1K
Avg Win Rate
78.9%
Aggregate P&L
-$1.7K(-78.6%)
Whales
24
G
glm404.fund🥇
Entry 56¢·1,749.8 shares
Invested
$977
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
$-838
$-838INV $977 · WR 85.8%
W
Wilted-Burden-Survivor🥈
Entry 45¢·800 shares
Invested
$360
Win Rate
71.7%
Position P&L
$-300
$-300INV $360 · WR 71.7%
H
Hasty-Worker🥉
Entry 50¢·430 shares
Invested
$215
Win Rate
59.7%
Position P&L
$-181
$-181INV $215 · WR 59.7%
L
Lucerys
Entry 50¢·286.8 shares
Invested
$142
Win Rate
87.1%
Position P&L
$-119
$-119INV $142 · WR 87.1%
G
godblessme2026
Entry 50¢·180 shares
Invested
$90
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
$-76
$-76INV $90 · WR 88.2%
D
donthackme
Entry 21¢·371 shares
Invested
$79
Win Rate
87.6%
Position P&L
$-51
$-51INV $79 · WR 87.6%
K
Knowing-Arthur-Ash
Entry 49¢·158.9 shares
Invested
$77
Win Rate
59.5%
Position P&L
$-65
$-65INV $77 · WR 59.5%
P
Pricey-Million
Entry 12¢·259.7 shares
Invested
$32
Win Rate
59.6%
Position P&L
$-13
$-13INV $32 · WR 59.6%
N
neverhackme
Entry 48¢·40 shares
Invested
$19
Win Rate
76.0%
Position P&L
$-16
$-16INV $19 · WR 76.0%
B
balthazar
Entry 10¢·156.5 shares
Invested
$15
Win Rate
72.2%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $15 · WR 72.2%
Showing top 10 of 24
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