Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win less than 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES Price
8¢
8% implied
NO Price
92¢
92% implied
Volume
$14.1K
313 trades
Smart Whales
34
of 97 traders · 1 on both sides
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share? (Higher Strikes)
6 MARKETS · $34.6K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win less than 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election←
8¢+12¢$14.1K2/8Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win less than 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election←+12¢8¢
$14.1K2/8
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 44% and 47% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
92¢−79¢$11.2K2/14Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 44% and 47% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election−79¢92¢
$11.2K2/14
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 47% and 50% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
1¢+8¢$5.3K1/10Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 47% and 50% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+8¢1¢
$5.3K1/10
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 50% and 53% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
0¢+30¢$6743/7Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 50% and 53% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+30¢0¢
$6743/7
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 53% and 56% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
0¢+18¢$1.7K2/9Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 53% and 56% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+18¢0¢
$1.7K2/9
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
8 YESvs27 NO
23%77%
77% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 12% YES by dollars · 5 YES vs 9 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 90%· net of hedges
+48 new YES$1.7K+59 new NO$8.5K
$1.8K of this was bought on both sides by the same 19 buyers — left out of momentum
8 smart whales25 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$93 of $3.7K is hedged across different prices by 1 wallet. True directional: YES $411·NO $3.2KYES Team
Total Invested
$1.5K
Avg Win Rate
58.2%
Aggregate P&L
-$1.1K(-70.7%)
Whales
8
2
0x26b16660...🥇hedged
Entry 87¢·1,005 shares·also $12 on NO
Invested
$875
Win Rate
55.7%
Position P&L
$-799
$-799INV $875 · WR 55.7%
G
gambler925🥈
Entry 13¢·2,815.7 shares
Invested
$376
Win Rate
56.3%
Position P&L
$-165
$-165INV $376 · WR 56.3%
M
melchior1248🥉
Entry 17¢·1,065.7 shares
Invested
$177
Win Rate
69.0%
Position P&L
$-97
$-97INV $177 · WR 69.0%
B
balthazarhedged
Entry 7¢·625 shares·also $179 on NO
Invested
$46
Win Rate
72.2%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $46 · WR 72.2%
N
navber
Entry 9¢·208.1 shares
Invested
$20
Win Rate
61.1%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $20 · WR 61.1%
S
solder
Entry 11¢·90 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
73.0%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $10 · WR 73.0%
A
AnCap.Investor
Entry 6¢·92.6 shares
Invested
$6
Win Rate
70.2%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $6 · WR 70.2%
M
mapleggg
Entry 17¢·1.3 shares
Invested
$0
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $0 · WR 85.9%
NO Team
Total Invested
$4.7K
Avg Win Rate
75.1%
Aggregate P&L
+$1.1K(+22.6%)
Whales
27
A
almost-never🥇
Entry 88¢·2,500 shares
Invested
$2.2K
Win Rate
73.4%
Position P&L
+$123
+$123INV $2.2K · WR 73.4%
G
glm404.fund🥈
Entry 75¢·1,100 shares
Invested
$820
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$197
+$197INV $820 · WR 85.8%
P
PetrGrepl🥉
Entry 88¢·336.3 shares
Invested
$295
Win Rate
66.5%
Position P&L
+$16
+$16INV $295 · WR 66.5%
W
Wilted-Burden-Survivor
Entry 88¢·321.6 shares
Invested
$284
Win Rate
71.7%
Position P&L
+$13
+$13INV $284 · WR 71.7%
B
balthazarhedged
Entry 90¢·200 shares·also $46 on YES
Invested
$179
Win Rate
72.2%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $179 · WR 72.2%
P
Pricey-Million
Entry 89¢·170.3 shares
Invested
$151
Win Rate
59.6%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $151 · WR 59.6%
L
Lucerys
Entry 47¢·321.8 shares
Invested
$150
Win Rate
87.1%
Position P&L
+$147
+$147INV $150 · WR 87.1%
S
Shallow-Diadem
Entry 52¢·230.5 shares
Invested
$120
Win Rate
59.4%
Position P&L
+$94
+$94INV $120 · WR 59.4%
S
smallreceipt
Entry 89¢·130 shares
Invested
$115
Win Rate
89.0%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $115 · WR 89.0%
C
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed
Entry 90¢·76.9 shares
Invested
$69
Win Rate
55.4%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $69 · WR 55.4%
Showing top 10 of 27
Smart Whale Trades
Loading trades...
Price History (YES)
Loading chart...
Loaded in 4676ms