Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 47% and 50% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES Price
0¢
0% implied
NO Price
100¢
100% implied
Volume
$5.3K
155 trades
Smart Whales
26
of 74 traders · 1 on both sides
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share? (Higher Strikes)
6 MARKETS · $37.3K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win less than 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
2¢+18¢$14.4K2/8Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win less than 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+18¢2¢
$14.4K2/8
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 44% and 47% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
98¢−85¢$12.9K2/14Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 44% and 47% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election−85¢98¢
$12.9K2/14
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 47% and 50% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election←
0¢+9¢$5.3K1/10Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 47% and 50% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election←+9¢0¢
$5.3K1/10
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 50% and 53% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
0¢+30¢$6743/7Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 50% and 53% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+30¢0¢
$6743/7
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 53% and 56% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
0¢+18¢$2.4K2/9Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 53% and 56% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+18¢0¢
$2.4K2/9
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Smart Money Consensus
5 YESvs22 NO
19%82%
82% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 2% YES by dollars · 3 YES vs 5 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 79%· net of hedges
+34 new YES$631+36 new NO$2.4K
$53 of this was bought on both sides by the same 8 buyers — left out of momentum
3 smart whales20 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$0 of $1.7K is hedged across different prices by 1 wallet. True directional: YES $37·NO $1.7KYES Team
Total Invested
$50
Avg Win Rate
62.0%
Aggregate P&L
-$30(-59.2%)
Whales
5
Y
Yirmeyahu🥇
Entry 11¢·216.9 shares
Invested
$23
Win Rate
64.4%
Position P&L
$-21
$-21INV $23 · WR 64.4%
S
ScottyNooo🥈
Entry 6¢·200 shares
Invested
$12
Win Rate
55.9%
Position P&L
$-10
$-10INV $12 · WR 55.9%
2
0x26b16660...🥉
Entry 0¢·1,610 shares
Invested
$3
Win Rate
55.7%
Position P&L
+$3
+$3INV $3 · WR 55.7%
M
mapleggg
Entry 17¢·8.7 shares
Invested
$1
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $1 · WR 85.9%
S
smallreceipthedged
Entry 3¢·3.3 shares·also $40 on NO
Invested
$0
Win Rate
89.0%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $0 · WR 89.0%
NO Team
Total Invested
$2.6K
Avg Win Rate
74.1%
Aggregate P&L
+$1.5K(+58.5%)
Whales
22
J
JasonPunos🥇
Entry 88¢·1,502.5 shares
Invested
$1.3K
Win Rate
74.1%
Position P&L
+$162
+$162INV $1.3K · WR 74.1%
P
Pricey-Million🥈
Entry 97¢·226 shares
Invested
$219
Win Rate
59.6%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $219 · WR 59.6%
G
glm404.fund🥉
Entry 18¢·1,010 shares
Invested
$182
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$824
+$824INV $182 · WR 85.8%
L
Lucerys
Entry 69¢·233.4 shares
Invested
$160
Win Rate
87.1%
Position P&L
+$72
+$72INV $160 · WR 87.1%
M
melchior1248
Entry 50¢·232.9 shares
Invested
$116
Win Rate
69.0%
Position P&L
+$116
+$116INV $116 · WR 69.0%
C
Classic-Loggia
Entry 53¢·203 shares
Invested
$107
Win Rate
59.5%
Position P&L
+$96
+$96INV $107 · WR 59.5%
U
UN-Sure◆Proven
Entry 90¢·96 shares
Invested
$86
Win Rate
91.1%
Position P&L
+$9
+$9INV $86 · WR 91.1%
S
Shallow-Diadem
Entry 50¢·160.3 shares
Invested
$80
Win Rate
59.4%
Position P&L
+$80
+$80INV $80 · WR 59.4%
L
Limping-Baggie-Technique
Entry 54¢·89.5 shares
Invested
$48
Win Rate
59.6%
Position P&L
+$41
+$41INV $48 · WR 59.6%
Q
quietparcel
Entry 50¢·80 shares
Invested
$40
Win Rate
88.7%
Position P&L
+$40
+$40INV $40 · WR 88.7%
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