Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 50% and 53% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES Price
0¢
0% implied
NO Price
100¢
100% implied
Volume
$674
53 trades
Smart Whales
14
of 29 traders
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share? (Higher Strikes)
6 MARKETS · $37.3K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win less than 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
2¢+18¢$14.4K2/8Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win less than 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+18¢2¢
$14.4K2/8
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 44% and 47% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
98¢−85¢$12.9K2/14Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 44% and 47% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election−85¢98¢
$12.9K2/14
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 47% and 50% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
0¢+9¢$5.3K1/10Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 47% and 50% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+9¢0¢
$5.3K1/10
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 50% and 53% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election←
0¢+30¢$6743/7Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 50% and 53% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election←+30¢0¢
$6743/7
Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 53% and 56% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
0¢+18¢$2.4K2/9Will Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva win between 53% and 56% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+18¢0¢
$2.4K2/9
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Smart Money Consensus
6 YESvs8 NO
43%57%
57% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 63% YES by dollars · 6 YES vs 4 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 99%· net of hedges
+10 new YES$2+7 new NO$220
$0 of this was bought on both sides by the same 2 buyers — left out of momentum
1 smart whale4 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $329 is directional: YES $208·NO $121YES Team
Total Invested
$208
Avg Win Rate
86.0%
Aggregate P&L
-$207(-99.7%)
Whales
6
G
glm404.fund🥇
Entry 17¢·1,000 shares
Invested
$169
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
$-169
$-169INV $169 · WR 85.8%
S
smallreceipt🥈
Entry 16¢·166.9 shares
Invested
$27
Win Rate
89.0%
Position P&L
$-27
$-27INV $27 · WR 89.0%
L
Lucerys🥉
Entry 17¢·48.9 shares
Invested
$8
Win Rate
87.1%
Position P&L
$-8
$-8INV $8 · WR 87.1%
S
solder
Entry 1¢·200 shares
Invested
$2
Win Rate
73.0%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $2 · WR 73.0%
B
balthazar
Entry 17¢·8.1 shares
Invested
$1
Win Rate
72.2%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $1 · WR 72.2%
K
kroko
Entry 1¢·27 shares
Invested
$0
Win Rate
56.6%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $0 · WR 56.6%
NO Team
Total Invested
$141
Avg Win Rate
82.6%
Aggregate P&L
+$25(+17.6%)
Whales
8
C
Chims◆Proven🥇
Entry 96¢·100.1 shares
Invested
$96
Win Rate
85.2%
Position P&L
+$4
+$4INV $96 · WR 85.2%
U
UN-Sure◆Proven🥈
Entry 99¢·13.1 shares
Invested
$13
Win Rate
91.1%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $13 · WR 91.1%
T
The-Defect🥉
Entry 96¢·11.3 shares
Invested
$11
Win Rate
80.3%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $11 · WR 80.3%
S
Spotless-Investigator-Overcoat
Entry 50¢·10.5 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
59.6%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $5 · WR 59.6%
H
Hasty-Worker
Entry 50¢·10.1 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
59.7%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $5 · WR 59.7%
M
mapleggg
Entry 50¢·10 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $5 · WR 85.9%
B
Brave-Timbale-Witch
Entry 50¢·10 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
62.9%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $5 · WR 62.9%
P
Pricey-Million
Entry 99¢·0.8 shares
Invested
$1
Win Rate
59.6%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $1 · WR 59.6%
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