Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 42% and 45% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES Price
0¢
0% implied
NO Price
100¢
100% implied
Volume
$13.8K
367 trades
Smart Whales
36
of 109 traders
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share? (Higher Strikes)
6 MARKETS · $92.8K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win less than 39% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
0¢+28¢$8.5K10/26Will Flávio Bolsonaro win less than 39% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+28¢0¢
$8.5K10/26
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 39% and 42% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
0¢+21¢$8.2K7/27Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 39% and 42% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+21¢0¢
$8.2K7/27
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 42% and 45% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election←
0¢+19¢$13.8K7/29Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 42% and 45% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election←+19¢0¢
$13.8K7/29
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 45% and 48% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
100¢−72¢$31.0K14/36Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 45% and 48% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election−72¢100¢
$31.0K14/36
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Smart Money Consensus
7 YESvs29 NO
19%81%
81% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 11% YES by dollars · 3 YES vs 5 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 70%· net of hedges
+37 new YES$1.8K+41 new NO$3.9K
$201 of this was bought on both sides by the same 10 buyers — left out of momentum
6 smart whales22 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $1.2K is directional: YES $132·NO $1.1KYES Team
Total Invested
$1.7K
Avg Win Rate
66.3%
Aggregate P&L
-$1.7K(-97.5%)
Whales
7
M
Musk5🥇
Entry 37¢·2,233.9 shares
Invested
$832
Win Rate
71.2%
Position P&L
$-831
$-831INV $832 · WR 71.2%
A
Antony82🥈
Entry 65¢·834.7 shares
Invested
$544
Win Rate
55.4%
Position P&L
$-544
$-544INV $544 · WR 55.4%
R
RenanPresidente.🥉hedged
Entry 60¢·265 shares·also $102 on NO
Invested
$159
Win Rate
77.0%
Position P&L
$-159
$-159INV $159 · WR 77.0%
J
JPLP
Entry 33¢·210 shares
Invested
$70
Win Rate
57.6%
Position P&L
$-60
$-60INV $70 · WR 57.6%
H
HolyMoses7◆Proven
Entry 17¢·335.2 shares
Invested
$56
Win Rate
77.6%
Position P&L
$-56
$-56INV $56 · WR 77.6%
A
aliiz
Entry 21¢·91 shares
Invested
$19
Win Rate
65.5%
Position P&L
$-19
$-19INV $19 · WR 65.5%
J
JordanMooney◆Proven
Entry 1¢·814.8 shares
Invested
$6
Win Rate
86.0%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $6 · WR 86.0%
NO Team
Total Invested
$4.0K
Avg Win Rate
78.7%
Aggregate P&L
+$3.1K(+76.1%)
Whales
29
G
glm404.fund🥇
Entry 53¢·1,411.9 shares
Invested
$750
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$661
+$661INV $750 · WR 85.8%
D
donthackme🥈
Entry 50¢·1,332.9 shares
Invested
$668
Win Rate
87.6%
Position P&L
+$664
+$664INV $668 · WR 87.6%
L
Lucerys🥉
Entry 51¢·1,023.5 shares
Invested
$519
Win Rate
87.1%
Position P&L
+$504
+$504INV $519 · WR 87.1%
W
Wilted-Burden-Survivor
Entry 65¢·640 shares
Invested
$418
Win Rate
71.8%
Position P&L
+$221
+$221INV $418 · WR 71.8%
B
BiDiFakePolls
Entry 60¢·503.4 shares
Invested
$302
Win Rate
59.7%
Position P&L
+$201
+$201INV $302 · WR 59.7%
A
almost-never
Entry 70¢·300 shares
Invested
$210
Win Rate
73.4%
Position P&L
+$89
+$89INV $210 · WR 73.4%
C
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed
Entry 59¢·251 shares
Invested
$148
Win Rate
55.3%
Position P&L
+$102
+$102INV $148 · WR 55.3%
P
plainfolder
Entry 52¢·200 shares
Invested
$103
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
+$97
+$97INV $103 · WR 85.9%
Q
quietparcel
Entry 52¢·200 shares
Invested
$103
Win Rate
88.8%
Position P&L
+$97
+$97INV $103 · WR 88.8%
R
RenanPresidente.hedged
Entry 38¢·265 shares·also $159 on YES
Invested
$102
Win Rate
77.0%
Position P&L
+$163
+$163INV $102 · WR 77.0%
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