Politics54 days left
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-05 House election by 12%-15%?
YES Price
1¢
1% implied
NO Price
99¢
99% implied
Volume
$3.2K
95 trades
Smart Whales
19
of 41 traders · 1 on both sides
MO-05 House Election Margin of Victory
10 MARKETS · $32.7K MATCHEDSmart Money
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
5 YESvs15 NO
25%75%
75% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 24% YES by dollars · 4 YES vs 3 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 98%· net of hedges
+6 new YES$6+6 new NO$276
$0 of this was bought on both sides by the same 1 buyer — left out of momentum
1 smart whale4 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$6 of $71 is hedged across different prices by 1 wallet. True directional: YES $16·NO $50YES Team
Total Invested
$19
Avg Win Rate
81.1%
Aggregate P&L
-$12(-63.3%)
Whales
5
E
e46m3🥇
Entry 8¢·134 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
79.5%
Position P&L
$-10
$-10INV $10 · WR 79.5%
S
sweetj🥈
Entry 0¢·963 shares
Invested
$4
Win Rate
76.1%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $4 · WR 76.1%
Q
quietparcel🥉hedged
Entry 8¢·40 shares·also $40 on NO
Invested
$3
Win Rate
88.8%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $3 · WR 88.8%
D
donthackme
Entry 8¢·21.5 shares
Invested
$2
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $2 · WR 87.7%
B
Bigggggggg
Entry 8¢·0.6 shares
Invested
$0
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $0 · WR 85.9%
NO Team
Total Invested
$531
Avg Win Rate
83.0%
Aggregate P&L
+$463(+87.2%)
Whales
15
S
smallreceipt🥇
Entry 50¢·200 shares
Invested
$100
Win Rate
89.3%
Position P&L
+$99
+$99INV $100 · WR 89.3%
N
northdrawer🥈
Entry 50¢·170 shares
Invested
$85
Win Rate
87.5%
Position P&L
+$84
+$84INV $85 · WR 87.5%
L
laptop.recked🥉
Entry 50¢·147.1 shares
Invested
$74
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
+$73
+$73INV $74 · WR 85.9%
B
balthazar
Entry 50¢·140 shares
Invested
$70
Win Rate
71.9%
Position P&L
+$69
+$69INV $70 · WR 71.9%
M
mustbethewater
Entry 50¢·80 shares
Invested
$40
Win Rate
79.5%
Position P&L
+$40
+$40INV $40 · WR 79.5%
G
godblessme2026
Entry 50¢·80 shares
Invested
$40
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
+$40
+$40INV $40 · WR 88.2%
Q
quietparcelhedged
Entry 100¢·40 shares·also $3 on YES
Invested
$40
Win Rate
88.8%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $40 · WR 88.8%
B
0xbfbdf1be...
Entry 50¢·68.4 shares
Invested
$34
Win Rate
77.9%
Position P&L
+$34
+$34INV $34 · WR 77.9%
K
Knowing-Arthur-Ash
Entry 50¢·28.5 shares
Invested
$14
Win Rate
57.9%
Position P&L
+$14
+$14INV $14 · WR 57.9%
W
wert4
Entry 96¢·10.3 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
68.4%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $10 · WR 68.4%
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