kircsia · Polymarket wallet 0xea4c…9200

Wallet snapshot

kircsia has made 353 trades on Polymarket across 154 markets, $11K in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (70%) and politics (13%). On 137 resolved markets the win rate is 91.2%, lifetime P&L +$1,041. It holds 10 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?". Last trade: Oct 16, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No · $1,035 · 77¢ → 85¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No · $278 · 90¢ → 93¢
• Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No · $277 · 76¢ → 93¢
• US strike on Mexico by December 31?No · $96 · 87¢ → 96¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No · $83 · 83¢ → 83¢
• US strike on Cuba by December 31?No · $44 · 63¢ → 89¢
• Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No · $39 · 89¢ → 97¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes · $35 · 84¢ → 12¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Yes · $9 · 89¢ → 87¢
• X banned in any European country by December 31?No · $4 · 88¢ → 89¢

Latest closed positions

• Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?No · +$1 · Oct 6, 2026
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No · +$2 · Oct 5, 2026
• Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?No · +$4 · Oct 5, 2026
• Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?No · +$7 · Oct 2, 2026
• Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?No · +$1 · Sep 1, 2026
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No · +$18 · Sep 1, 2026
• Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.