Diligent-Scenario · Polymarket wallet 0xdf27…e6e4

Wallet snapshot

Diligent-Scenario has made 4,928 trades on Polymarket across 180 markets, $559K in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (41%) and politics (11%). On 128 resolved markets the win rate is 81.3%, lifetime P&L +$5,091. It holds 22 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?". Last trade: Oct 14, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No · $5,221 · 81¢ → 64¢
• China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?No · $3,588 · 92¢ → 96¢
• Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?No · $2,751 · 90¢ → 93¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No · $2,745 · 92¢ → 92¢
• Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?No · $1,668 · 89¢ → 96¢
• Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?No · $1,432 · 95¢ → 97¢
• AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?No · $1,430 · 90¢ → 94¢
• Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes · $1,122 · 74¢ → 65¢
• NATO article 5 before 2027?No · $877 · 93¢ → 95¢
• Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?No · $517 · 87¢ → 88¢

Latest closed positions

• Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?No · +$220 · Oct 14, 2026
• Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2026?Yes · +$0 · Oct 13, 2026
• Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2027?No · +$7 · Oct 13, 2026
• NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?No · +$55 · Oct 13, 2026
• Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?Yes · +$0 · Oct 11, 2026
• NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Yes · +$4 · Oct 11, 2026
• Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.