Kapustus · Polymarket wallet 0x6cbd…e951

Wallet snapshot

Kapustus has made 549 trades on Polymarket across 116 markets, $14K in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (84%) and politics (7%). On 87 resolved markets the win rate is 65.5%, lifetime P&L +$503. It holds 8 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?". Last trade: Oct 12, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?No · $222 · 77¢ → 87¢
• Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027?Yes · $183 · 84¢ → 83¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?No · $40 · 53¢ → 80¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes · $25 · 63¢ → 64¢
• NATO article 5 before 2027?Yes · $6 · 8¢ → 5¢
• Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?No · $6 · 30¢ → 16¢
• Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes · $5 · 12¢ → 3¢
• Russia coup attempt in 2026?Yes · $4 · 9¢ → 3¢

Latest closed positions

• Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?No · +$3 · Oct 12, 2026
• Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?No · +$12 · Oct 12, 2026
• Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 29, 2026?Yes · -$4 · Oct 3, 2026
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?Yes · +$3 · Oct 1, 2026
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?No · +$24 · Oct 1, 2026
• Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by September 30?Yes · -$5 · Oct 1, 2026
• Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?

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