tumbra · Polymarket wallet 0x52ca…523f

Wallet snapshot

tumbra has made 1,224 trades on Polymarket across 108 markets, $203K in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (33%) and economics (25%). On 100 resolved markets the win rate is 84%, lifetime P&L +$11K. It holds 4 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Iran leadership change by December 31?". Last trade: Oct 1, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Iran leadership change by December 31?No · $3,409 · 84¢ → 88¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No · $3,315 · 75¢ → 84¢
• Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?No · $3,145 · 63¢ → 93¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No · $1,794 · 79¢ → 91¢

Latest closed positions

• Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No · +$7 · Oct 9, 2026
• Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 3?No · +$1 · Oct 3, 2026
• Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?No · -$3,016 · Oct 1, 2026
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No · +$63 · Oct 1, 2026
• Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?No · +$268 · Sep 25, 2026
• Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?No · +$21 · Sep 21, 2026
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?No · -$50 · Sep 21, 2026
• Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes · +$23 · Sep 21, 2026
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?No · +$0 · Sep 16, 2026
• Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?Yes · +$865 · Sep 1, 2026

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.