Substantial-Graph · Polymarket wallet 0x2e87…3534

+$1,063 lifetime P&L · 57% win rate · 149 resolved markets · 0x2e87ce8a92707ecd55832568891f457884243534

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Wallet snapshot

Substantial-Graph has made 751 trades on Polymarket across 184 markets, $37K in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (75%) and politics (8%). On 149 resolved markets the win rate is 57%, lifetime P&L +$1,063. It holds 28 open positions right now; the largest is Yes on "Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?". Last trade: Oct 1, 2026.

Largest open positions

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Yes · $12 · 29¢ → 22¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No · $10 · 35¢ → 44¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No · $10 · 73¢ → 86¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?No · $9 · 53¢ → 66¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No · $8 · 70¢ → 47¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No · $7 · 75¢ → 86¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No · $7 · 55¢ → 66¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?No · $5 · 80¢ → 94¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No · $4 · 88¢ → 96¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Yes · $4 · 28¢ → 30¢

Latest closed positions

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No · +$4 · Oct 1, 2026
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?No · +$0 · Sep 23, 2026
Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes · -$21 · Sep 23, 2026
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?No · -$2 · Sep 23, 2026
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes · -$1 · Sep 23, 2026
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?No · -$2 · Sep 23, 2026
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

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