Arles1 · Polymarket wallet 0x2533…51c1

Wallet snapshot

Arles1 has made 370 trades on Polymarket across 122 markets, $19K in volume. Most of it is in sports (44%) and geopolitics (32%). On 111 resolved markets the win rate is 93.7%. It holds 8 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?". Last trade: Oct 1, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No · $231 · 91¢ → 95¢
• Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?No · $112 · 97¢ → 99¢
• Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?No · $94 · 89¢ → 90¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?No · $89 · 93¢ → 94¢
• Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No · $52 · 94¢ → 97¢
• Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No · $51 · 96¢ → 98¢
• Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No · $44 · 96¢ → 98¢
• Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?No · $4 · 95¢ → 97¢

Latest closed positions

• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?No · +$2 · Oct 1, 2026
• Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?No · +$3 · Sep 10, 2026
• NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?No · +$12 · Sep 1, 2026
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No · +$1 · Sep 1, 2026
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?No · +$1 · Aug 18, 2026
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No · +$2 · Aug 4, 2026
• Iran leadership change by July 31?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.