YES Price
63¢
63% implied
NO Price
37¢
37% implied
Volume
$203.9K
940 trades
Smart Whales
44
of 269 traders · 2 on both sides
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
5 MARKETS · $1.38M MATCHEDSmart Money
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
19 YESvs27 NO
Wallets vs price
Price 63¢
YES 41%NO 59%of Smart Money wallets holding this marketYES price 63¢
Net of both-sides wallets: 46% YES by dollars · 15 YES vs 24 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 51%· net of hedges
$11.5K
$11.2K
+27 new YES · 3 smart whales+56 new NO · 10 smart whales
$2.4K bought on both sides by the same 16 buyers — left out of momentum
In-form wallets ⓘ9 of 13 on NO
YES 4NO 9one dot = one wallet
4 wallets on YES
9 wallets on NO
The top 10% of wallets by Form vs price: over the last 90 days they won more often than the prices they paid implied. In a test on closed markets, when at least 2/3 of three or more such wallets held one side, that side also won more often than its price implied. Positions updated 3 days ago. This describes who holds what, not a forecast. How it was tested
Teams by
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$104 of $21.2K is hedged across different prices by 2 wallets. True directional: YES $9.7K·NO $11.4KYES Team
Total Invested
$10.9K
Avg Win Rate
66.7%
Aggregate P&L
-$94(-0.9%)
Whales
19
G
GoriIIa🥇
Entry 61¢·4,029.4 shares
Invested
$2.5K
Win Rate
71.6%
Position P&L
+$60
+$60INV $2.5K · WR 71.6%
E
eCash◆Proven🥈
Entry 66¢·3,500 shares
Invested
$2.3K
Win Rate
66.6%
Position P&L
$-133
$-133INV $2.3K · WR 66.6%
C
Car🥉
Entry 63¢·2,773.6 shares
Invested
$1.7K
Win Rate
64.9%
Position P&L
$-16
$-16INV $1.7K · WR 64.9%
A
ArmageddonRewardsBilly
Entry 63¢·2,000 shares
Invested
$1.3K
Win Rate
57.1%
Position P&L
$-5
$-5INV $1.3K · WR 57.1%
K
klli27hedged
Entry 64¢·1,395.4 shares·also $515 on NO
Invested
$899
Win Rate
81.0%
Position P&L
$-27
$-27INV $899 · WR 81.0%
T
truthteller
Entry 61¢·1,381.1 shares
Invested
$844
Win Rate
57.8%
Position P&L
+$20
+$20INV $844 · WR 57.8%
Z
Zaratustra
Entry 63¢·700 shares
Invested
$444
Win Rate
61.2%
Position P&L
$-7
$-7INV $444 · WR 61.2%
I
Isekai
Entry 68¢·500 shares
Invested
$339
Win Rate
65.2%
Position P&L
$-27
$-27INV $339 · WR 65.2%
T
Te0n2hedged
Entry 57¢·400 shares·also $144 on NO
Invested
$228
Win Rate
67.0%
Position P&L
+$22
+$22INV $228 · WR 67.0%
C
Cheerful-Ephemerahedged
Entry 56¢·316.7 shares·also $9 on NO
Invested
$177
Win Rate
74.5%
Position P&L
+$21
+$21INV $177 · WR 74.5%
Showing top 10 of 19
NO Team
Total Invested
$12.1K
Avg Win Rate
66.7%
Aggregate P&L
-$330(-2.7%)
Whales
27
C
cashy🥇
Entry 39¢·9,635.4 shares
Invested
$3.8K
Win Rate
71.6%
Position P&L
$-145
$-145INV $3.8K · WR 71.6%
P
paddaa🥈
Entry 36¢·7,080.3 shares
Invested
$2.6K
Win Rate
61.4%
Position P&L
+$74
+$74INV $2.6K · WR 61.4%
P
ponydsb◆Proven🥉
Entry 43¢·5,178 shares
Invested
$2.2K
Win Rate
61.4%
Position P&L
$-285
$-285INV $2.2K · WR 61.4%
H
Hossein-m◆Proven
Entry 37¢·2,334.9 shares
Invested
$858
Win Rate
75.0%
Position P&L
+$18
+$18INV $858 · WR 75.0%
D
DerDon◆Proven
Entry 37¢·2,000 shares
Invested
$740
Win Rate
56.6%
Position P&L
+$10
+$10INV $740 · WR 56.6%
T
Tenebrus7◆Proven
Entry 36¢·1,472.7 shares
Invested
$535
Win Rate
74.3%
Position P&L
+$17
+$17INV $535 · WR 74.3%
K
klli27hedged
Entry 37¢·1,395.4 shares·also $899 on YES
Invested
$515
Win Rate
81.0%
Position P&L
+$8
+$8INV $515 · WR 81.0%
D
dontkn0w◆Proven
Entry 38¢·440 shares
Invested
$167
Win Rate
55.2%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $167 · WR 55.2%
T
Te0n2hedged
Entry 36¢·400 shares·also $228 on YES
Invested
$144
Win Rate
67.0%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $144 · WR 67.0%
D
delta-fox
Entry 45¢·289.8 shares
Invested
$130
Win Rate
57.0%
Position P&L
$-22
$-22INV $130 · WR 57.0%
Showing top 10 of 27
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