Geopolitics23 days left

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 30?

Trade on Polymarket

YES Price

49¢

49% implied

NO Price

51¢

51% implied

Volume

$811

39 trades

Smart Whales

of 29 traders

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

5 MARKETS · $909 MATCHED

Smart Money

by November 15−17¢50¢

$01/2

by November 22

53¢−28¢$01/3

by November 22−28¢53¢

$01/3

by November 30←

49¢−16¢$01/2

by November 30←−16¢49¢

$01/2

by December 31

49¢+51¢$02/0

by December 31+51¢49¢

$02/0

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Smart Money Consensus

2 YESvs3 NO

40%60%

60% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 0% YES by dollars · 0 YES vs 1 NO taking a side

Last 24h FlowYES momentum 64%· net of hedges

+22 new YES$997+17 new NO$625

$304 of this was bought on both sides by the same 10 buyers — left out of momentum

2 smart whales4 smart whales

Both-sides exposure · invested basis

No wallet here holds both sides — all $23 is directional: YES $0·NO $23

YES Team

Total Invested

$59

Avg Win Rate

80.1%

Aggregate P&L

-$11(-18.2%)

Whales

klli27🥇hedged

Entry 68¢·79.6 shares·also $27 on NO

$-15INV $54 · WR 82.0%

NO Team

Total Invested

$57

Avg Win Rate

83.4%

Aggregate P&L

+$16(+28.4%)

Whales

klli27🥇hedged

Entry 34¢·79.6 shares·also $54 on YES

+$14INV $27 · WR 82.0%

+$1INV $23 · WR 94.4%

Smart Whale Trades

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Price History (YES)

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