YES Price
1¢
1% implied
NO Price
99¢
99% implied
Volume
$145.6K
1,261 trades
Smart Whales
80
of 312 traders · 1 on both sides
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
6 MARKETS · $2.44M MATCHEDSmart Money
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026←
1¢+21¢$145.6K18/64Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026←+21¢1¢
$145.6K18/64
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026
4¢+22¢$11.6K5/14Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026+22¢4¢
$11.6K5/14
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027
35¢−35¢$2.3K0/4Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027−35¢35¢
$2.3K0/4
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027
21¢+4¢$1.9K1/3Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027+4¢21¢
$1.9K1/3
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
18 YESvs63 NO
22%78%
78% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 3% YES by dollars · 9 YES vs 50 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 63%· net of hedges
+8 new YES$70+2 new NO$118
$2 of this was bought on both sides by the same 1 buyer — left out of momentum
1 smart whale0 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$2 of $41.3K is hedged across different prices by 1 wallet. True directional: YES $1.4K·NO $39.9KYES Team
Total Invested
$2.3K
Avg Win Rate
69.0%
Aggregate P&L
-$1.3K(-58.1%)
Whales
18
K
ka7ak🥇
Entry 10¢·4,424.4 shares
Invested
$456
Win Rate
65.2%
Position P&L
$-388
$-388INV $456 · WR 65.2%
G
GollumGekko◆Proven🥈
Entry 18¢·2,307.2 shares
Invested
$415
Win Rate
75.9%
Position P&L
$-380
$-380INV $415 · WR 75.9%
R
rainbowlilies🥉
Entry 7¢·3,303.5 shares
Invested
$230
Win Rate
84.8%
Position P&L
$-179
$-179INV $230 · WR 84.8%
E
Extroverted-Pony
Entry 18¢·1,138.5 shares
Invested
$207
Win Rate
56.0%
Position P&L
$-189
$-189INV $207 · WR 56.0%
S
StarMaster◆Proven
Entry 8¢·1,805 shares
Invested
$147
Win Rate
55.4%
Position P&L
$-121
$-121INV $147 · WR 55.4%
M
mirand◆Proven
Entry 18¢·256 shares
Invested
$45
Win Rate
67.1%
Position P&L
$-41
$-41INV $45 · WR 67.1%
T
Tenebrus7hedged
Entry 3¢·960.4 shares·also $2.4K on NO
Invested
$25
Win Rate
74.2%
Position P&L
$-11
$-11INV $25 · WR 74.2%
T
TypeShi
Entry 2¢·1,111.2 shares
Invested
$21
Win Rate
61.9%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $21 · WR 61.9%
T
Touge
Entry 3¢·387.1 shares
Invested
$12
Win Rate
67.9%
Position P&L
$-6
$-6INV $12 · WR 67.9%
S
Sharp-Tripod
Entry 13¢·50 shares
Invested
$7
Win Rate
64.3%
Position P&L
$-6
$-6INV $7 · WR 64.3%
Showing top 10 of 18
NO Team
Total Invested
$45.3K
Avg Win Rate
77.4%
Aggregate P&L
+$14.7K(+32.4%)
Whales
63
G
GoriIIa🥇
Entry 92¢·12,074.1 shares
Invested
$11.1K
Win Rate
71.8%
Position P&L
+$756
+$756INV $11.1K · WR 71.8%
T
The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA🥈
Entry 94¢·7,346.4 shares
Invested
$6.9K
Win Rate
88.7%
Position P&L
+$349
+$349INV $6.9K · WR 88.7%
A
aff3🥉
Entry 85¢·7,030.1 shares
Invested
$6.0K
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
+$927
+$927INV $6.0K · WR 79.2%
B
Bukaj0889
Entry 86¢·3,490.7 shares
Invested
$3.0K
Win Rate
91.9%
Position P&L
+$438
+$438INV $3.0K · WR 91.9%
T
Tenebrus7hedged
Entry 98¢·2,490.9 shares·also $25 on YES
Invested
$2.4K
Win Rate
74.2%
Position P&L
+$20
+$20INV $2.4K · WR 74.2%
P
Parz1vaI
Entry 90¢·2,531.4 shares
Invested
$2.3K
Win Rate
71.6%
Position P&L
+$214
+$214INV $2.3K · WR 71.6%
A
AuthenticDemigod
Entry 87¢·2,039 shares
Invested
$1.8K
Win Rate
69.7%
Position P&L
+$228
+$228INV $1.8K · WR 69.7%
O
Outsmarter
Entry 86¢·1,500 shares
Invested
$1.3K
Win Rate
72.9%
Position P&L
+$189
+$189INV $1.3K · WR 72.9%
B
Bukaj
Entry 86¢·1,162.8 shares
Invested
$1.0K
Win Rate
94.3%
Position P&L
+$139
+$139INV $1.0K · WR 94.3%
G
geowatch
Entry 92¢·1,088.2 shares
Invested
$1.0K
Win Rate
67.0%
Position P&L
+$68
+$68INV $1.0K · WR 67.0%
Showing top 10 of 63
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