Politics2 days left
Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YES Price
75¢
75% implied
NO Price
25¢
25% implied
Volume
$16.1K
672 trades
Smart Whales
40
of 184 traders · 1 on both sides
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share?
5 MARKETS · $31.3K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will Lula win less than 35% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
2¢−2¢$2.6K0/15Will Lula win less than 35% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election−2¢2¢
$2.6K0/15
Will Lula win between 35% and 38% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
1¢+6¢$2.2K1/14Will Lula win between 35% and 38% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+6¢1¢
$2.2K1/14
Will Lula win between 38% and 41% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
5¢+16¢$4.3K5/19Will Lula win between 38% and 41% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election+16¢5¢
$4.3K5/19
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Smart Money Consensus
6 YESvs35 NO
15%85%
85% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 17% YES by dollars · 4 YES vs 6 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 66%· net of hedges
+14 new YES$5.2K+62 new NO$2.8K
$275 of this was bought on both sides by the same 8 buyers — left out of momentum
1 smart whale23 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$12 of $1.6K is hedged across different prices by 1 wallet. True directional: YES $259·NO $1.3KYES Team
Total Invested
$275
Avg Win Rate
65.2%
Aggregate P&L
+$80(+28.9%)
Whales
6
F
flawfence🥇
Entry 54¢·280 shares
Invested
$151
Win Rate
55.0%
Position P&L
+$38
+$38INV $151 · WR 55.0%
6
65765757🥈
Entry 48¢·199.1 shares
Invested
$95
Win Rate
79.0%
Position P&L
+$39
+$39INV $95 · WR 79.0%
7
7Ouros🥉
Entry 52¢·20 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
65.7%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $10 · WR 65.7%
T
Tyshahedged
Entry 59¢·15 shares·also $6 on NO
Invested
$9
Win Rate
89.3%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $9 · WR 89.3%
Showing top 4 of 6
NO Team
Total Invested
$2.1K
Avg Win Rate
70.2%
Aggregate P&L
-$389(-18.4%)
Whales
35
B
BiDiFakePolls🥇
Entry 36¢·2,600 shares
Invested
$928
Win Rate
59.7%
Position P&L
$-83
$-83INV $928 · WR 59.7%
L
Lucerys🥈
Entry 42¢·443.9 shares
Invested
$185
Win Rate
86.9%
Position P&L
$-72
$-72INV $185 · WR 86.9%
W
Wilted-Burden-Survivor🥉
Entry 37¢·500 shares
Invested
$183
Win Rate
71.7%
Position P&L
$-21
$-21INV $183 · WR 71.7%
D
DerDon
Entry 39¢·300 shares
Invested
$117
Win Rate
56.6%
Position P&L
$-20
$-20INV $117 · WR 56.6%
E
e46m3
Entry 39¢·290.1 shares
Invested
$112
Win Rate
79.3%
Position P&L
$-39
$-39INV $112 · WR 79.3%
D
donthackme
Entry 26¢·404.6 shares
Invested
$107
Win Rate
87.6%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $107 · WR 87.6%
S
smallreceipt
Entry 35¢·260 shares
Invested
$91
Win Rate
89.0%
Position P&L
$-25
$-25INV $91 · WR 89.0%
P
plainfolder
Entry 52¢·124.1 shares
Invested
$65
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
$-33
$-33INV $65 · WR 85.9%
Q
quietparcel
Entry 71¢·66.8 shares
Invested
$48
Win Rate
88.7%
Position P&L
$-31
$-31INV $48 · WR 88.7%
N
northdrawer
Entry 39¢·121 shares
Invested
$48
Win Rate
87.6%
Position P&L
$-17
$-17INV $48 · WR 87.6%
Showing top 10 of 35
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