YES Price
59¢
59% implied
NO Price
41¢
41% implied
Volume
$13.0K
387 trades
Smart Whales
20
of 102 traders
What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
5 MARKETS · $30.3K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above←
59¢−47¢$13.0K2/15Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above←−47¢59¢
$13.0K2/15
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0
4¢+9¢$1.9K2/13Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0+9¢4¢
$1.9K2/13
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25
9¢+6¢$2.3K3/17Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25+6¢9¢
$2.3K3/17
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
3 YESvs17 NO
15%85%
85% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 58% YES by dollars · 3 YES vs 6 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 50%· net of hedges
+12 new YES$1.0K+17 new NO$1.0K
$974 of this was bought on both sides by the same 4 buyers — left out of momentum
2 smart whales3 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $2.2K is directional: YES $1.3K·NO $911YES Team
Total Invested
$1.3K
Avg Win Rate
73.0%
Aggregate P&L
-$98(-7.7%)
Whales
3
A
Annual-Commercial🥇
Entry 64¢·1,703.1 shares
Invested
$1.1K
Win Rate
73.9%
Position P&L
$-96
$-96INV $1.1K · WR 73.9%
G
GrandeFromage🥈
Entry 57¢·255.5 shares
Invested
$146
Win Rate
66.3%
Position P&L
+$3
+$3INV $146 · WR 66.3%
M
Mithrandir.🥉
Entry 70¢·50 shares
Invested
$35
Win Rate
73.2%
Position P&L
$-6
$-6INV $35 · WR 73.2%
NO Team
Total Invested
$1.3K
Avg Win Rate
70.3%
Aggregate P&L
+$71(+5.6%)
Whales
17
C
Corny-Hyphenation🥇
Entry 33¢·1,257.5 shares
Invested
$412
Win Rate
67.1%
Position P&L
+$110
+$110INV $412 · WR 67.1%
S
Started-with-20-USD🥈
Entry 56¢·664.5 shares
Invested
$371
Win Rate
59.1%
Position P&L
$-96
$-96INV $371 · WR 59.1%
G
GuyFromMontreal🥉
Entry 28¢·429.1 shares
Invested
$122
Win Rate
75.0%
Position P&L
+$56
+$56INV $122 · WR 75.0%
E
e46m3
Entry 50¢·130.1 shares
Invested
$65
Win Rate
79.5%
Position P&L
$-11
$-11INV $65 · WR 79.5%
J
JustClickeverywhere
Entry 32¢·187.5 shares
Invested
$60
Win Rate
79.5%
Position P&L
+$17
+$17INV $60 · WR 79.5%
M
mustbethewater
Entry 50¢·120 shares
Invested
$60
Win Rate
79.5%
Position P&L
$-10
$-10INV $60 · WR 79.5%
M
midturn
Entry 70¢·80 shares
Invested
$56
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
$-22
$-22INV $56 · WR 85.8%
G
godblessme2026
Entry 28¢·192 shares
Invested
$54
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
+$25
+$25INV $54 · WR 88.2%
S
smallreceipt
Entry 43¢·78.4 shares
Invested
$34
Win Rate
89.3%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $34 · WR 89.3%
N
northdrawer
Entry 32¢·78.1 shares
Invested
$25
Win Rate
87.4%
Position P&L
+$7
+$7INV $25 · WR 87.4%
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