YES Price
66¢
66% implied
NO Price
34¢
34% implied
Volume
$53.5K
1,344 trades
Smart Whales
45
of 242 traders
What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
5 MARKETS · $122.6K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above←
66¢−39¢$53.5K12/33Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above←−39¢66¢
$53.5K12/33
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0
0¢+15¢$5.5K4/23Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0+15¢0¢
$5.5K4/23
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25
2¢+12¢$6.9K5/30Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25+12¢2¢
$6.9K5/30
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
12 YESvs33 NO
27%73%
73% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 71% YES by dollars · 9 YES vs 5 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 60%· net of hedges
+6 new YES$375+12 new NO$264
$107 of this was bought on both sides by the same 3 buyers — left out of momentum
1 smart whale0 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $3.0K is directional: YES $2.2K·NO $870YES Team
Total Invested
$2.3K
Avg Win Rate
67.9%
Aggregate P&L
+$182(+8.0%)
Whales
12
A
Annual-Commercial🥇
Entry 65¢·1,851 shares
Invested
$1.2K
Win Rate
70.8%
Position P&L
+$122
+$122INV $1.2K · WR 70.8%
C
Corny-Hyphenation🥈
Entry 75¢·692.3 shares
Invested
$519
Win Rate
68.3%
Position P&L
$-24
$-24INV $519 · WR 68.3%
F
FrozenParasite🥉
Entry 59¢·474.7 shares
Invested
$280
Win Rate
56.4%
Position P&L
+$48
+$48INV $280 · WR 56.4%
H
Hugin-og-Munin
Entry 71¢·150 shares
Invested
$107
Win Rate
66.6%
Position P&L
$-9
$-9INV $107 · WR 66.6%
K
KiernanMeister◆Proven
Entry 44¢·198 shares
Invested
$87
Win Rate
63.4%
Position P&L
+$44
+$44INV $87 · WR 63.4%
M
Mithrandir.
Entry 70¢·50 shares
Invested
$35
Win Rate
69.7%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $35 · WR 69.7%
A
AlMerman07
Entry 72¢·21 shares
Invested
$15
Win Rate
59.8%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $15 · WR 59.8%
E
Elias.Thornwell
Entry 78¢·11 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
68.0%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $9 · WR 68.0%
N
Nonstop-Tailspin
Entry 74¢·10 shares
Invested
$7
Win Rate
77.8%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $7 · WR 77.8%
B
beatrix99
Entry 67¢·3.4 shares
Invested
$2
Win Rate
81.4%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $2 · WR 81.4%
Showing top 10 of 12
NO Team
Total Invested
$1.8K
Avg Win Rate
74.6%
Aggregate P&L
-$48(-2.8%)
Whales
33
S
Started-with-20-USD◆Proven🥇
Entry 55¢·664.5 shares
Invested
$364
Win Rate
58.7%
Position P&L
$-158
$-158INV $364 · WR 58.7%
E
0xef34794e...🥈
Entry 23¢·1,118.6 shares
Invested
$261
Win Rate
72.0%
Position P&L
+$58
+$58INV $261 · WR 72.0%
G
glm4.1.fund🥉
Entry 49¢·274.6 shares
Invested
$134
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
$-41
$-41INV $134 · WR 85.9%
H
Hot-SkullHomelessBegger
Entry 21¢·600 shares
Invested
$126
Win Rate
81.8%
Position P&L
+$45
+$45INV $126 · WR 81.8%
E
e46m3
Entry 48¢·249.6 shares
Invested
$121
Win Rate
79.4%
Position P&L
$-36
$-36INV $121 · WR 79.4%
E
EsperanzasDESTROYER
Entry 27¢·429.1 shares
Invested
$118
Win Rate
64.8%
Position P&L
+$28
+$28INV $118 · WR 64.8%
G
godblessme2026
Entry 28¢·262 shares
Invested
$73
Win Rate
88.0%
Position P&L
+$16
+$16INV $73 · WR 88.0%
D
donthackme
Entry 28¢·259.8 shares
Invested
$72
Win Rate
87.6%
Position P&L
+$17
+$17INV $72 · WR 87.6%
M
mustbethewater
Entry 50¢·120 shares
Invested
$60
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
$-19
$-19INV $60 · WR 79.6%
B
balthazar
Entry 26¢·230 shares
Invested
$59
Win Rate
72.0%
Position P&L
+$19
+$19INV $59 · WR 72.0%
Showing top 10 of 33
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