Annual-Commercial · Polymarket wallet 0x4cfd…bef3

Wallet snapshot

Annual-Commercial has made 275 trades on Polymarket across 29 markets, $14K in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (59%) and economics (7%). On 24 resolved markets the win rate is 70.8%, lifetime P&L +$297. It holds 1 open position right now; the largest is Yes on "Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?". Last trade: Oct 14, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?Yes · $1,407 · 64¢ → 76¢

Latest closed positions

• Will Tropical Storm Lowell strengthen to a hurricane?Yes · +$56 · Sep 4, 2026
• Will no Atlantic hurricane form in August 2026?Yes · +$9 · Sep 1, 2026
• Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between August 27 and August 31, 2026?No · +$10 · Sep 1, 2026
• Will Tropical Storm Karina strengthen to a hurricane?Yes · +$11 · Aug 31, 2026
• Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?Yes · -$25 · Aug 25, 2026
• Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?No · -$5 · Aug 25, 2026
• Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes · +$178 · Aug 23, 2026
• Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?Yes · +$42 · Aug 11, 2026
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes · -$57 · Aug 8, 2026
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No · -$55 · Aug 4, 2026

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.