166 days left
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?
YES Price
23¢
23% implied
NO Price
77¢
77% implied
Volume
$44.4K
1,080 trades
Smart Whales
31
of 163 traders
What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
5 MARKETS · $99.9K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above
76¢−46¢$45.9K11/26Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above−46¢76¢
$45.9K11/26
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0
1¢+19¢$3.7K5/20Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0+19¢1¢
$3.7K5/20
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25
2¢+20¢$4.3K7/25Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25+20¢2¢
$4.3K7/25
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
7 YESvs24 NO
23%77%
77% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 99% YES by dollars · 3 YES vs 1 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 80%· net of hedges
+10 new YES$352+15 new NO$684
$491 of this was bought on both sides by the same 9 buyers — left out of momentum
3 smart whales2 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $577 is directional: YES $570·NO $7YES Team
Total Invested
$704
Avg Win Rate
68.5%
Aggregate P&L
+$71(+10.1%)
Whales
7
C
Corny-Hyphenation🥇
Entry 17¢·3,262.7 shares
Invested
$542
Win Rate
68.3%
Position P&L
+$143
+$143INV $542 · WR 68.3%
A
Annual-Commercial🥈hedged
Entry 76¢·123.4 shares·also $23 on NO
Invested
$93
Win Rate
70.8%
Position P&L
$-66
$-66INV $93 · WR 70.8%
M
Majas🥉
Entry 34¢·100 shares
Invested
$34
Win Rate
66.5%
Position P&L
$-11
$-11INV $34 · WR 66.5%
H
Hugin-og-Munin
Entry 18¢·150 shares
Invested
$27
Win Rate
66.8%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $27 · WR 66.8%
A
0xa169f83d...
Entry 19¢·24 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
67.1%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $5 · WR 67.1%
G
garbagecollect4
Entry 20¢·11 shares
Invested
$2
Win Rate
68.9%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $2 · WR 68.9%
C
0xcaf2333a...
Entry 6¢·17 shares
Invested
$1
Win Rate
64.7%
Position P&L
+$3
+$3INV $1 · WR 64.7%
NO Team
Total Invested
$1.5K
Avg Win Rate
79.0%
Aggregate P&L
+$624(+41.9%)
Whales
24
E
e46m3🥇
Entry 59¢·428.8 shares
Invested
$252
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
+$80
+$80INV $252 · WR 79.6%
Q
qwen4.1.fund🥈
Entry 71¢·289.2 shares
Invested
$206
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
+$18
+$18INV $206 · WR 85.9%
F
FrozenParasite🥉
Entry 28¢·669.3 shares
Invested
$188
Win Rate
57.2%
Position P&L
+$331
+$331INV $188 · WR 57.2%
P
plainfolder
Entry 71¢·256 shares
Invested
$182
Win Rate
86.0%
Position P&L
+$16
+$16INV $182 · WR 86.0%
B
balthazar
Entry 56¢·320 shares
Invested
$178
Win Rate
72.1%
Position P&L
+$70
+$70INV $178 · WR 72.1%
M
mustbethewater
Entry 82¢·120 shares
Invested
$98
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
$-5
$-5INV $98 · WR 79.6%
G
god83743894
Entry 61¢·140 shares
Invested
$86
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$23
+$23INV $86 · WR 85.8%
G
graynotebook19
Entry 70¢·116 shares
Invested
$82
Win Rate
89.3%
Position P&L
+$8
+$8INV $82 · WR 89.3%
S
smallreceipt
Entry 77¢·100.4 shares
Invested
$77
Win Rate
89.0%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $77 · WR 89.0%
A
Annual-Commercialhedged
Entry 19¢·123.4 shares·also $93 on YES
Invested
$23
Win Rate
70.8%
Position P&L
+$72
+$72INV $23 · WR 70.8%
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