158 days left
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?
YES Price
31¢
31% implied
NO Price
69¢
69% implied
Volume
$55.1K
1,236 trades
Smart Whales
35
of 193 traders
What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
5 MARKETS · $122.8K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above
69¢−42¢$53.7K12/33Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above−42¢69¢
$53.7K12/33
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0
0¢+15¢$5.5K4/23Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0+15¢0¢
$5.5K4/23
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25
2¢+12¢$6.9K5/30Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25+12¢2¢
$6.9K5/30
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
4 YESvs31 NO
11%89%
89% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 98% YES by dollars · 2 YES vs 3 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 68%· net of hedges
+8 new YES$296+11 new NO$530
$178 of this was bought on both sides by the same 6 buyers — left out of momentum
0 smart whales1 smart whale
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $892 is directional: YES $875·NO $17YES Team
Total Invested
$970
Avg Win Rate
68.5%
Aggregate P&L
+$242(+24.9%)
Whales
4
C
Corny-Hyphenation🥇
Entry 20¢·4,174.8 shares
Invested
$848
Win Rate
68.3%
Position P&L
+$279
+$279INV $848 · WR 68.3%
A
Annual-Commercial🥈hedged
Entry 76¢·123.4 shares·also $23 on NO
Invested
$93
Win Rate
70.8%
Position P&L
$-56
$-56INV $93 · WR 70.8%
H
Hugin-og-Munin🥉
Entry 18¢·150 shares
Invested
$27
Win Rate
66.6%
Position P&L
+$19
+$19INV $27 · WR 66.6%
Showing top 3 of 4
NO Team
Total Invested
$2.1K
Avg Win Rate
80.6%
Aggregate P&L
+$419(+19.7%)
Whales
31
E
e46m3🥇
Entry 60¢·480.7 shares
Invested
$289
Win Rate
79.4%
Position P&L
+$45
+$45INV $289 · WR 79.4%
G
glm4.1.fund🥈
Entry 67¢·419.2 shares
Invested
$281
Win Rate
85.9%
Position P&L
+$11
+$11INV $281 · WR 85.9%
B
balthazar🥉
Entry 57¢·390 shares
Invested
$220
Win Rate
72.0%
Position P&L
+$51
+$51INV $220 · WR 72.0%
F
FrozenParasite
Entry 28¢·669.3 shares
Invested
$188
Win Rate
56.4%
Position P&L
+$277
+$277INV $188 · WR 56.4%
P
plainfolder
Entry 71¢·256 shares
Invested
$182
Win Rate
86.1%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $182 · WR 86.1%
D
donthackme
Entry 72¢·152.2 shares
Invested
$110
Win Rate
87.6%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $110 · WR 87.6%
F
fourcoin15m
Entry 72¢·144.2 shares
Invested
$104
Win Rate
84.3%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $104 · WR 84.3%
M
mustbethewater
Entry 82¢·120 shares
Invested
$98
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
$-15
$-15INV $98 · WR 79.6%
A
akroll
Entry 70¢·134.3 shares
Invested
$94
Win Rate
86.9%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $94 · WR 86.9%
G
god83743894
Entry 62¢·145 shares
Invested
$90
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$11
+$11INV $90 · WR 85.8%
Showing top 10 of 31
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