203 days left
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?
YES Price
31¢
31% implied
NO Price
69¢
69% implied
Volume
$12.3K
377 trades
Smart Whales
18
of 96 traders
What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
5 MARKETS · $30.3K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above
59¢−47¢$13.0K2/15Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above−47¢59¢
$13.0K2/15
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0
4¢+9¢$1.9K2/13Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0+9¢4¢
$1.9K2/13
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25
9¢+6¢$2.3K3/17Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25+6¢9¢
$2.3K3/17
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
2 YESvs16 NO
11%89%
89% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 100% YES by dollars · 1 YES vs 0 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 61%· net of hedges
+22 new YES$1.4K+29 new NO$1.7K
$1.5K of this was bought on both sides by the same 13 buyers — left out of momentum
1 smart whale0 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $503 is directional: YES $503·NO $0YES Team
Total Invested
$597
Avg Win Rate
68.2%
Aggregate P&L
+$14(+2.3%)
Whales
2
NO Team
Total Invested
$947
Avg Win Rate
83.6%
Aggregate P&L
+$11(+1.2%)
Whales
16
P
plainfolder🥇
Entry 71¢·256 shares
Invested
$182
Win Rate
85.6%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $182 · WR 85.6%
J
JustClickeverywhere🥈
Entry 73¢·224.1 shares
Invested
$163
Win Rate
79.5%
Position P&L
$-7
$-7INV $163 · WR 79.5%
M
midturn🥉
Entry 85¢·160 shares
Invested
$136
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
$-25
$-25INV $136 · WR 85.8%
E
e46m3
Entry 66¢·157 shares
Invested
$104
Win Rate
79.5%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $104 · WR 79.5%
M
mustbethewater
Entry 82¢·120 shares
Invested
$98
Win Rate
79.5%
Position P&L
$-15
$-15INV $98 · WR 79.5%
G
graynotebook19
Entry 70¢·116 shares
Invested
$82
Win Rate
89.5%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $82 · WR 89.5%
S
smallreceipt
Entry 77¢·100 shares
Invested
$77
Win Rate
89.3%
Position P&L
$-8
$-8INV $77 · WR 89.3%
A
Annual-Commercialhedged
Entry 19¢·123.4 shares·also $93 on YES
Invested
$23
Win Rate
73.9%
Position P&L
+$62
+$62INV $23 · WR 73.9%
G
godblessme2026
Entry 69¢·31.3 shares
Invested
$22
Win Rate
88.2%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $22 · WR 88.2%
Q
quietparcel
Entry 82¢·20 shares
Invested
$16
Win Rate
88.8%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $16 · WR 88.8%
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