Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-04 House election by 45% or more?
YES Price
51¢
51% implied
NO Price
49¢
49% implied
Volume
$6.3K
294 trades
Smart Whales
20
of 130 traders
VA-04 House Election Margin of Victory
10 MARKETS · $22.2K MATCHEDSmart Money
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
6 YESvs14 NO
30%70%
70% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 80% YES by dollars · 6 YES vs 4 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 89%
+2 new YES$15+2 new NO$2
2 smart whales0 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $695 is directional: YES $553·NO $142YES Team
Total Invested
$553
Avg Win Rate
70.3%
Aggregate P&L
-$5(-0.8%)
Whales
6
T
thanksforplayin🥇
Entry 44¢·614.2 shares
Invested
$270
Win Rate
55.9%
Position P&L
+$34
+$34INV $270 · WR 55.9%
T
TrangNgo🥈
Entry 96¢·167.1 shares
Invested
$160
Win Rate
92.0%
Position P&L
$-77
$-77INV $160 · WR 92.0%
D
deepervalue🥉
Entry 87¢·75 shares
Invested
$65
Win Rate
76.2%
Position P&L
$-28
$-28INV $65 · WR 76.2%
S
sweetj
Entry 21¢·243.1 shares
Invested
$52
Win Rate
72.2%
Position P&L
+$69
+$69INV $52 · WR 72.2%
M
Metallic-Monasticism
Entry 95¢·6 shares
Invested
$6
Win Rate
56.0%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $6 · WR 56.0%
L
Lucerys
Entry 8¢·2.4 shares
Invested
$0
Win Rate
87.6%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $0 · WR 87.6%
NO Team
Total Invested
$262
Avg Win Rate
68.7%
Aggregate P&L
-$2(-0.9%)
Whales
14
J
johnashbough🥇
Entry 53¢·200.5 shares
Invested
$107
Win Rate
55.3%
Position P&L
$-6
$-6INV $107 · WR 55.3%
H
haveagoodday🥈
Entry 61¢·35 shares
Invested
$21
Win Rate
86.5%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $21 · WR 86.5%
Q
quietparcel🥉
Entry 63¢·30 shares
Invested
$19
Win Rate
88.5%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $19 · WR 88.5%
M
melchior1248
Entry 58¢·30 shares
Invested
$17
Win Rate
70.0%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $17 · WR 70.0%
N
Novel-Driveway-Upgrade
Entry 95¢·16 shares
Invested
$15
Win Rate
82.4%
Position P&L
$-7
$-7INV $15 · WR 82.4%
M
mariacryptoss
Entry 43¢·31 shares
Invested
$13
Win Rate
63.6%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $13 · WR 63.6%
L
lpgb
Entry 63¢·21 shares
Invested
$13
Win Rate
71.7%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $13 · WR 71.7%
E
e46m3
Entry 59¢·20.2 shares
Invested
$12
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $12 · WR 79.2%
Y
yoyo424269
Entry 61¢·19 shares
Invested
$12
Win Rate
69.7%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $12 · WR 69.7%
G
garbagecollect4
Entry 87¢·11 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
68.4%
Position P&L
$-4
$-4INV $10 · WR 68.4%
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