Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MS-01 House election by 15%-20%?
YES Price
97¢
97% implied
NO Price
3¢
3% implied
Volume
$3.6K
88 trades
Smart Whales
16
of 63 traders
MS-01 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
10 MARKETS · $37.2K MATCHEDSmart Money
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
3 YESvs13 NO
19%81%
81% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 100% YES by dollars · 3 YES vs 0 NO taking a side
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $504 is directional: YES $504·NO $0YES Team
Total Invested
$504
Avg Win Rate
76.8%
Aggregate P&L
+$21(+4.2%)
Whales
3
NO Team
Total Invested
$428
Avg Win Rate
83.4%
Aggregate P&L
-$415(-97.0%)
Whales
13
L
Lucerys🥇
Entry 95¢·197.1 shares
Invested
$187
Win Rate
87.6%
Position P&L
$-181
$-181INV $187 · WR 87.6%
B
balthazar🥈
Entry 93¢·100 shares
Invested
$93
Win Rate
71.9%
Position P&L
$-90
$-90INV $93 · WR 71.9%
G
god83743894🥉
Entry 94¢·85 shares
Invested
$80
Win Rate
86.0%
Position P&L
$-77
$-77INV $80 · WR 86.0%
Q
quietparcel
Entry 99¢·10 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
88.5%
Position P&L
$-10
$-10INV $10 · WR 88.5%
H
haveagoodday
Entry 99¢·10 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
86.5%
Position P&L
$-10
$-10INV $10 · WR 86.5%
P
plainfolder
Entry 99¢·10 shares
Invested
$10
Win Rate
86.1%
Position P&L
$-10
$-10INV $10 · WR 86.1%
M
mustbethewater
Entry 94¢·10 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
$-9
$-9INV $9 · WR 79.6%
S
smallreceipt
Entry 92¢·10 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
88.6%
Position P&L
$-9
$-9INV $9 · WR 88.6%
E
e46m3
Entry 99¢·7.9 shares
Invested
$8
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
$-8
$-8INV $8 · WR 79.2%
C
Conscious-Gaffer-Tortoise
Entry 98¢·7.9 shares
Invested
$8
Win Rate
81.8%
Position P&L
$-8
$-8INV $8 · WR 81.8%
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