Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MS-01 House election by 40%-45%?
YES Price
0¢
0% implied
NO Price
100¢
100% implied
Volume
$917
44 trades
Smart Whales
10
of 40 traders
MS-01 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
10 MARKETS · $37.2K MATCHEDSmart Money
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
1 YESvs9 NO
10%90%
90% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 100% YES by dollars · 1 YES vs 0 NO taking a side
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $4 is directional: YES $4·NO $0YES Team
Total Invested
$4
Avg Win Rate
72.2%
Aggregate P&L
-$4(-94.0%)
Whales
1
NO Team
Total Invested
$537
Avg Win Rate
84.0%
Aggregate P&L
+$28(+5.2%)
Whales
9
L
Lucerys🥇
Entry 98¢·197.1 shares
Invested
$193
Win Rate
87.6%
Position P&L
+$4
+$4INV $193 · WR 87.6%
B
balthazar🥈
Entry 99¢·100 shares
Invested
$99
Win Rate
71.9%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $99 · WR 71.9%
G
godblessme2026🥉
Entry 99¢·95 shares
Invested
$94
Win Rate
87.9%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $94 · WR 87.9%
N
northdrawer
Entry 82¢·90 shares
Invested
$74
Win Rate
87.5%
Position P&L
+$16
+$16INV $74 · WR 87.5%
E
e46m3
Entry 93¢·40.2 shares
Invested
$38
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
+$3
+$3INV $38 · WR 79.2%
G
graynotebook19
Entry 96¢·14 shares
Invested
$14
Win Rate
89.0%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $14 · WR 89.0%
V
Vicious-Wannabe
Entry 82¢·13.5 shares
Invested
$11
Win Rate
81.2%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $11 · WR 81.2%
P
plainfolder
Entry 94¢·10 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
86.1%
Position P&L
+$1
+$1INV $9 · WR 86.1%
F
fourcoin15m
Entry 97¢·5 shares
Invested
$5
Win Rate
84.1%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $5 · WR 84.1%
Smart Whale Trades
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