Economics39 days left
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?
YES Price
46¢
46% implied
NO Price
54¢
54% implied
Volume
$47.5K
1,803 trades
Smart Whales
70
of 283 traders · 3 on both sides
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
5 MARKETS · $163.8K MATCHEDSmart Money
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting
0¢+21¢$23.0K8/30Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting+21¢0¢
$23.0K8/30
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting←
46¢−14¢$47.5K23/50Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting←−14¢46¢
$47.5K23/50
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting
0¢+59¢$7.2K17/12Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting+59¢0¢
$7.2K17/12
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
23 YESvs50 NO
32%69%
69% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 48% YES by dollars · 12 YES vs 8 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowNO momentum 82%· net of hedges
+10 new YES$139+15 new NO$365
$146 of this was bought on both sides by the same 5 buyers — left out of momentum
0 smart whales3 smart whales
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$75 of $1.9K is hedged across different prices by 3 wallets. True directional: YES $864·NO $934YES Team
Total Invested
$2.8K
Avg Win Rate
72.6%
Aggregate P&L
-$538(-19.0%)
Whales
23
N
nicholasflamel🥇hedged
Entry 102¢·625.9 shares·also $657 on NO
Invested
$636
Win Rate
59.6%
Position P&L
$-352
$-352INV $636 · WR 59.6%
A
Ahpo🥈hedged
Entry 75¢·643.6 shares·also $111 on NO
Invested
$485
Win Rate
92.2%
Position P&L
$-192
$-192INV $485 · WR 92.2%
V
vino1234🥉hedged
Entry 82¢·591 shares·also $728 on NO
Invested
$484
Win Rate
62.1%
Position P&L
$-215
$-215INV $484 · WR 62.1%
J
Jest55
Entry 28¢·914.8 shares
Invested
$259
Win Rate
83.4%
Position P&L
+$157
+$157INV $259 · WR 83.4%
P
polmarke195
Entry 46¢·400 shares
Invested
$184
Win Rate
95.5%
Position P&L
$-2
$-2INV $184 · WR 95.5%
E
exothetajunkie
Entry 35¢·507.8 shares
Invested
$177
Win Rate
59.7%
Position P&L
+$54
+$54INV $177 · WR 59.7%
S
Started-with-20-USD
Entry 51¢·289 shares
Invested
$147
Win Rate
58.8%
Position P&L
$-16
$-16INV $147 · WR 58.8%
C
charlatta
Entry 41¢·135.3 shares
Invested
$55
Win Rate
87.3%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $55 · WR 87.3%
G
GingerMcKennahedged
Entry 51¢·63.5 shares·also $28 on NO
Invested
$32
Win Rate
85.5%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $32 · WR 85.5%
T
tinman2
Entry 39¢·58.1 shares
Invested
$22
Win Rate
66.4%
Position P&L
+$4
+$4INV $22 · WR 66.4%
Showing top 10 of 23
NO Team
Total Invested
$10.6K
Avg Win Rate
78.7%
Aggregate P&L
-$1.9K(-17.8%)
Whales
50
E
e46m3🥇
Entry 77¢·2,567.2 shares
Invested
$2.0K
Win Rate
79.2%
Position P&L
$-583
$-583INV $2.0K · WR 79.2%
P
plainfolder🥈
Entry 69¢·1,231 shares
Invested
$850
Win Rate
85.7%
Position P&L
$-179
$-179INV $850 · WR 85.7%
V
vino1234🥉hedged
Entry 43¢·1,683.7 shares·also $484 on YES
Invested
$728
Win Rate
62.1%
Position P&L
+$190
+$190INV $728 · WR 62.1%
N
nicholasflamelhedged
Entry 105¢·625.9 shares·also $636 on YES
Invested
$657
Win Rate
59.6%
Position P&L
$-316
$-316INV $657 · WR 59.6%
L
Lucerys
Entry 83¢·767.6 shares
Invested
$640
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
$-222
$-222INV $640 · WR 85.8%
D
donthackme
Entry 72¢·825.7 shares
Invested
$592
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
$-142
$-142INV $592 · WR 87.7%
K
korda77
Entry 62¢·914.1 shares
Invested
$564
Win Rate
85.0%
Position P&L
$-66
$-66INV $564 · WR 85.0%
N
northdrawer
Entry 70¢·716.2 shares
Invested
$503
Win Rate
87.5%
Position P&L
$-113
$-113INV $503 · WR 87.5%
G
graynotebook19
Entry 62¢·527.2 shares
Invested
$327
Win Rate
89.4%
Position P&L
$-39
$-39INV $327 · WR 89.4%
H
highstakebet
Entry 81¢·377.3 shares
Invested
$306
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
$-101
$-101INV $306 · WR 85.8%
Showing top 10 of 50
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