Erasmus. · Polymarket wallet 0xc658…b784

Wallet snapshot

Erasmus. has made 38,459 trades on Polymarket across 764 markets, $99M in volume. Most of it is in politics (48%) and geopolitics (26%). On 744 resolved markets the win rate is 70.7%, lifetime P&L +$204K. It holds 17 open positions right now; the largest is Yes on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?". Last trade: Oct 26, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes · $322K · 81¢ → 94¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No · $267K · 74¢ → 94¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes · $93K · 30¢ → 6¢
• Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No · $73K · 90¢ → 98¢
• Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No · $47K · 88¢ → 92¢
• Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No · $26K · 83¢ → 95¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No · $23K · 82¢ → 95¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes · $19K · 82¢ → 94¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?No · $19K · 31¢ → 6¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes · $14K · 63¢ → 36¢

Latest closed positions

• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?No · +$26K · Oct 2, 2026
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No · -$108 · Sep 30, 2026
• Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes · +$145 · Sep 30, 2026
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes · +$306K · Sep 16, 2026
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes · -$5,827 · Sep 16, 2026
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes · +$226 · Sep 16, 2026

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