8ca8 · Polymarket wallet 0xae41…76c8

Wallet snapshot

8ca8 has made 190 trades on Polymarket across 89 markets, $23K in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (99%). On 81 resolved markets the win rate is 91.4%. It holds 4 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?". Last trade: Oct 7, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No · $149 · 84¢ → 84¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?No · $94 · 87¢ → 94¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No · $42 · 84¢ → 88¢
• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?No · $33 · 83¢ → 89¢

Latest closed positions

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?No · +$6 · Oct 1, 2026
• Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?No · +$5 · Oct 1, 2026
• Iran full airspace closure by September 30?No · +$5 · Oct 1, 2026
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No · +$7 · Oct 1, 2026
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?No · +$1 · Sep 21, 2026
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?No · +$6 · Sep 15, 2026
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?No · +$6 · Sep 5, 2026
• Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?No · -$1 · Aug 30, 2026
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No · -$0 · Aug 27, 2026
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No · $0 · Aug 21, 2026

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.