ansatz · Polymarket wallet 0x5fa4…cd4e

+$1,396 lifetime P&L · 78.7% win rate · 272 resolved markets · 0x5fa44ddbefd7c2962719dfbe14b9f164104dcd4e

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Wallet snapshot

ansatz has made 1,781 trades on Polymarket across 402 markets, $80K in volume. Most of it is in politics (21%) and geopolitics (20%). On 272 resolved markets the win rate is 78.7%, lifetime P&L +$1,396. It holds 80 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?". Last trade: Sep 30, 2026.

Largest open positions

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No · $904 · 50¢ → 100¢
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?No · $675 · 59¢ → 68¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No · $502 · 75¢ → 83¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?No · $430 · 81¢ → 90¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No · $428 · 70¢ → 86¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No · $391 · 95¢ → 98¢
US strike on Mexico by December 31?No · $385 · 88¢ → 96¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No · $378 · 83¢ → 95¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No · $378 · 90¢ → 95¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No · $378 · 88¢ → 95¢

Latest closed positions

Trump renames AI by September 30?No · -$272 · Oct 4, 2026
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?No · +$64 · Oct 1, 2026
Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.?No · -$3 · Sep 25, 2026
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?Yes · +$160 · Sep 22, 2026
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes · +$137 · Sep 21, 2026
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?Yes · -$128 · Sep 16, 2026
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

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