Foundation · Polymarket wallet 0x3e43…a83f

Wallet snapshot

Foundation has made 352 trades on Polymarket across 105 markets, $36K in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (65%) and politics (18%). On 94 resolved markets the win rate is 75.5%, lifetime P&L +$2,560. It holds 8 open positions right now; the largest is No on "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?". Last trade: Sep 21, 2026.

Largest open positions

• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No · $1,370 · 92¢ → 98¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No · $463 · 93¢ → 93¢
• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?No · $371 · 79¢ → 95¢
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No · $191 · 79¢ → 95¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?No · $189 · 83¢ → 95¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No · $152 · 73¢ → 76¢
• US strike on Cuba by December 31?No · $89 · 50¢ → 89¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes · $1 · 58¢ → 6¢

Latest closed positions

• Xi Jinping out before 2027?Yes · -$3 · Sep 21, 2026
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Yes · -$10 · Sep 18, 2026
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?No · +$18 · Sep 16, 2026
• NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?No · +$17 · Sep 11, 2026
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No · +$30 · Sep 11, 2026
• Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026?Yes · +$19 · Aug 30, 2026
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.