Carpfisher · Polymarket wallet 0x054b…8477

+$14,599 lifetime P&L · 59.4% win rate · 217 resolved markets · 0x054b5e8df41a509f5e176c8e925b7c59e9ed8477

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Wallet snapshot

Carpfisher has made 18,970 trades on Polymarket across 230 markets, $1.4M in volume. Most of it is in geopolitics (44%) and crypto (24%). On 217 resolved markets the win rate is 59.4%, lifetime P&L +$15K. It holds 7 open positions right now; the largest is Yes on "Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?". Last trade: Oct 7, 2026.

Largest open positions

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes · $1,059 · 8¢ → 9¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes · $1,046 · 20¢ → 15¢
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes · $514 · 18¢ → 19¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?Yes · $434 · 24¢ → 13¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?No · $241 · 28¢ → 20¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?No · $210 · 70¢ → 78¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Yes · $140 · 66¢ → 14¢

Latest closed positions

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes · -$932 · Aug 30, 2026
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No · +$374 · Aug 29, 2026
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?No · +$6,693 · Aug 27, 2026
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes · +$110 · Jul 20, 2026
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes · +$573 · Jul 20, 2026
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes · +$60 · Jul 16, 2026
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Snapshot from OrcaLayer data, refreshed every 10 minutes.