81 days left
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
YES Price
9¢
9% implied
NO Price
91¢
91% implied
Volume
$46.5K
1,472 trades
Smart Whales
56
of 364 traders
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
6 MARKETS · $1.17M MATCHEDSmart Money
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026
22¢+10¢$500.9K29/61Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026+10¢22¢
$500.9K29/61
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026
47¢−9¢$275.4K27/44Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026−9¢47¢
$275.4K27/44
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026←
9¢+14¢$46.5K13/43Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026←+14¢9¢
$46.5K13/43
Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026
7¢+14¢$32.4K10/38Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026+14¢7¢
$32.4K10/38
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
13 YESvs43 NO
23%77%
77% of smart money holding this market is on NONet of both-sides wallets: 64% YES by dollars · 8 YES vs 8 NO taking a side
Quiet 24h — no new smart whale entries
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
No wallet here holds both sides — all $310 is directional: YES $197·NO $113YES Team
Total Invested
$207
Avg Win Rate
68.0%
Aggregate P&L
+$179(+86.2%)
Whales
13
D
DEGENKHAN◆Proven🥇
Entry 5¢·3,437.1 shares
Invested
$164
Win Rate
66.6%
Position P&L
+$163
+$163INV $164 · WR 66.6%
1
1walrus🥈
Entry 10¢·91 shares
Invested
$9
Win Rate
65.1%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $9 · WR 65.1%
O
Opulent-Communicant🥉
Entry 5¢·159.7 shares
Invested
$8
Win Rate
73.1%
Position P&L
+$7
+$7INV $8 · WR 73.1%
H
haruk098
Entry 6¢·135 shares
Invested
$8
Win Rate
76.0%
Position P&L
+$5
+$5INV $8 · WR 76.0%
J
jennylulu2016
Entry 10¢·62 shares
Invested
$6
Win Rate
89.1%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $6 · WR 89.1%
S
supergauss
Entry 4¢·29.4 shares
Invested
$1
Win Rate
80.0%
Position P&L
+$2
+$2INV $1 · WR 80.0%
8
88mnm88hedged
Entry 2¢·40.7 shares·also $35 on NO
Invested
$1
Win Rate
77.1%
Position P&L
+$3
+$3INV $1 · WR 77.1%
J
James-Claude◆Proven
Entry 5¢·5 shares
Invested
$0
Win Rate
75.9%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $0 · WR 75.9%
S
Shallow-Diadem
Entry 12¢·2 shares
Invested
$0
Win Rate
59.6%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $0 · WR 59.6%
Y
yzhaobk
Entry 0¢·2.8 shares
Invested
$0
Win Rate
87.9%
Position P&L
+$0
+$0INV $0 · WR 87.9%
Showing top 10 of 13
NO Team
Total Invested
$6.0K
Avg Win Rate
80.5%
Aggregate P&L
+$1.3K(+21.9%)
Whales
43
I
influenz.eth🥇
Entry 90¢·3,116.5 shares
Invested
$2.8K
Win Rate
85.8%
Position P&L
+$6
+$6INV $2.8K · WR 85.8%
M
melchior1248🥈
Entry 93¢·838.9 shares
Invested
$776
Win Rate
69.2%
Position P&L
$-16
$-16INV $776 · WR 69.2%
L
LieutenantMiloMinderbinder🥉
Entry 54¢·1,003.4 shares
Invested
$539
Win Rate
70.0%
Position P&L
+$370
+$370INV $539 · WR 70.0%
R
rated
Entry 76¢·533.8 shares
Invested
$403
Win Rate
87.7%
Position P&L
+$81
+$81INV $403 · WR 87.7%
A
ArmageddonRewardsBilly
Entry 58¢·492.9 shares
Invested
$286
Win Rate
57.7%
Position P&L
+$161
+$161INV $286 · WR 57.7%
N
Novus0rdoSeclorum
Entry 95¢·275 shares
Invested
$261
Win Rate
83.8%
Position P&L
$-12
$-12INV $261 · WR 83.8%
P
products
Entry 93¢·257.1 shares
Invested
$239
Win Rate
86.6%
Position P&L
$-6
$-6INV $239 · WR 86.6%
M
mymacbook◆Proven
Entry 53¢·208.9 shares
Invested
$110
Win Rate
80.1%
Position P&L
+$79
+$79INV $110 · WR 80.1%
M
mustbethewater
Entry 93¢·100 shares
Invested
$93
Win Rate
79.6%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $93 · WR 79.6%
V
vikbara
Entry 97¢·49.2 shares
Invested
$48
Win Rate
83.3%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $48 · WR 83.3%
Showing top 10 of 43
Smart Whale Trades
Loading trades...
Price History (YES)
Loading chart...
Loaded in 872ms