YES Price
75¢
75% implied
NO Price
25¢
25% implied
Volume
$10.9K
354 trades
Smart Whales
13
of 108 traders · 1 on both sides
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
7 MARKETS · $7.42M MATCHEDSmart Money
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026
35¢+2¢$338.3K20/34Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026+2¢35¢
$338.3K20/34
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026
3¢+21¢$361.9K12/37Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026+21¢3¢
$361.9K12/37
Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026
97¢−27¢$33.4K7/3Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026−27¢97¢
$33.4K7/3
Will there be at least 7000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026←
75¢−21¢$10.9K7/6Will there be at least 7000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026←−21¢75¢
$10.9K7/6
Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026
99¢+1¢$5.5K5/0Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026+1¢99¢
$5.5K5/0
Hover a row for the full Polymarket title
Smart Money Consensus
7 YESvs7 NO
Wallets vs price
Price 75¢
YES 50%NO 50%of Smart Money wallets holding this marketYES price 75¢
Net of both-sides wallets: 50% YES by dollars · 6 YES vs 6 NO taking a side
Last 24h FlowYES momentum 75%· net of hedges
$656
$229
+6 new YES · 2 smart whales+5 new NO · 1 smart whale
$32 bought on both sides by the same 1 buyer — left out of momentum
In-form wallets ⓘ6 of 8 on NO
YES 2NO 6one dot = one wallet
2 wallets on YES
6 wallets on NO
The top 10% of wallets by Form vs price: over the last 90 days they won more often than the prices they paid implied. In a test on closed markets, when at least 2/3 of three or more such wallets held one side, that side also won more often than its price implied. Positions updated 36h ago. This describes who holds what, not a forecast. How it was tested
Teams by
Both-sides exposure · invested basis
$244 of $1.0K is hedged across different prices by 1 wallet. True directional: YES $398·NO $403YES Team
Total Invested
$531
Avg Win Rate
74.3%
Aggregate P&L
+$61(+11.6%)
Whales
7
F
fElon🥇hedged
Entry 84¢·212.3 shares·also $122 on NO
Invested
$178
Win Rate
86.2%
Position P&L
$-36
$-36INV $178 · WR 86.2%
S
sabsabinxz🥈
Entry 50¢·230 shares
Invested
$114
Win Rate
71.4%
Position P&L
+$40
+$40INV $114 · WR 71.4%
M
mariacryptoss🥉
Entry 44¢·217 shares
Invested
$95
Win Rate
63.3%
Position P&L
+$50
+$50INV $95 · WR 63.3%
L
LosingEverything12312312323123◆Proven
Entry 69¢·133.9 shares
Invested
$93
Win Rate
72.1%
Position P&L
$-3
$-3INV $93 · WR 72.1%
T
tinman2
Entry 54¢·64.5 shares
Invested
$35
Win Rate
64.8%
Position P&L
+$8
+$8INV $35 · WR 64.8%
H
hithitfar
Entry 61¢·19 shares
Invested
$12
Win Rate
59.9%
Position P&L
+$3
+$3INV $12 · WR 59.9%
G
garbagecollect4
Entry 74¢·6 shares
Invested
$4
Win Rate
68.3%
Position P&L
$-0
$-0INV $4 · WR 68.3%
NO Team
Total Invested
$525
Avg Win Rate
70.5%
Aggregate P&L
-$79(-15.0%)
Whales
7
C
clazzy1🥇
Entry 68¢·234.8 shares
Invested
$160
Win Rate
67.5%
Position P&L
$-82
$-82INV $160 · WR 67.5%
F
fElon🥈hedged
Entry 26¢·462.7 shares·also $178 on YES
Invested
$122
Win Rate
86.2%
Position P&L
+$31
+$31INV $122 · WR 86.2%
G
geowatch🥉
Entry 59¢·168.7 shares
Invested
$100
Win Rate
67.6%
Position P&L
$-44
$-44INV $100 · WR 67.6%
R
Rr55◆Proven
Entry 17¢·285.2 shares
Invested
$50
Win Rate
72.4%
Position P&L
+$45
+$45INV $50 · WR 72.4%
O
Oskoreiter
Entry 46¢·100 shares
Invested
$46
Win Rate
56.8%
Position P&L
$-13
$-13INV $46 · WR 56.8%
A
Askeladd.
Entry 47¢·96.3 shares
Invested
$45
Win Rate
57.4%
Position P&L
$-13
$-13INV $45 · WR 57.4%
B
big-bird1
Entry 59¢·3.9 shares
Invested
$2
Win Rate
69.1%
Position P&L
$-1
$-1INV $2 · WR 69.1%
Smart Whale Trades
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Price History (YES)
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